Evaluating 2025 NFL Free Agents: Avoiding the Risky Investments
Five teams were eliminated from the NFL playoffs over the weekend, marking the official start of the offseason for another five franchises. While early exits from the postseason can be disheartening, the offseason often brings a renewed sense of hope. In the coming months, teams will have the opportunity to bolster their rosters with fresh talent through free agency and the draft. The aspirations of many teams lie in a roster overhaul similar to the quick turnarounds seen this season by the Washington Commanders and Los Angeles Chargers. However, acquiring new talent is not a guaranteed path to success, as a careful approach is necessary to find players who add value, fit into the team's scheme, and avoid those with the potential for significant risk.
One player frequently associated with high expectations is Odell Beckham Jr., who remains a notable name despite his current performance level. At 32 years old, Beckham is unlikely to revert to the explosive form he showcased early in his career with the New York Giants. The Miami Dolphins signed him to a one-year, $3 million deal in 2024, but his contribution was limited, as he recorded just nine receptions for 55 yards in nine games before being released. Although he had a decent season with the Baltimore Ravens in 2023, where he notched 565 receiving yards and three touchdowns, teams should reconsider his name recognition when evaluating potential receiver acquisitions. Instead of Beckham, teams seeking a reliable and cost-effective option might look at Tennessee Titans wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who demonstrated his potential by averaging 15.5 yards per reception and scoring nine touchdowns in the 2024 season.
Another veteran back, Ezekiel Elliott, still possesses utility as a depth piece in the backfield, primarily due to his skills in pass protection and receiving. Following his release from the Dallas Cowboys, Elliott found a role with the Los Angeles Chargers. However, despite his experience, teams should not regard him as a high-impact player for the 2025 free agency. Elliott's production significantly diminished in 2024, finishing with only 74 carries and averaging 3.1 yards per rush. In contrast, teams in need of short-term help should consider Kareem Hunt, who, despite losing some burst, has remained productive in the red zone, rushing for nine touchdowns in 2023 and seven more in 2024.
Former high draft picks often attract interest due to their pedigree, yet caution is warranted. Jeff Okudah, a 2020 third overall pick, has struggled to establish himself after being drafted by the Detroit Lions. Now with the Houston Texans, Okudah's tenure has been marred by injuries and inconsistent play. In the 2024 season, he allowed an opposing passer rating of 140.7 and was placed on injured reserve due to a hip injury. While he will be only 26 by February, teams should view Okudah as a developmental asset rather than a starting-caliber cornerback, while considering a backup role for him. For a more reliable option, Asante Samuel Jr., who performed solidly in his previous seasons, could be a more worthy target for teams hoping to bolster their secondary.
Backup quarterbacks often have value, and Daniel Jones is no exception; his experience with 69 starts has led him to be picked up by the Minnesota Vikings after being released by the New York Giants. However, teams seeking to revitalize a struggling quarterback's career should be cautious when considering Jones. Despite a playoff appearance in 2022, his overall performance has been akin to that of a backup, highlighted by a concerning record of 24-44-1 and an 84.3 passer rating. On the other hand, Zach Wilson, a former first-round pick of the New York Jets, presents a more enticing option for those teams willing to take a chance. While Wilson's journey has been marked by challenges, his athletic potential and age could provide the foundation for a fresh start.
Tyron Smith, a likely future Hall of Famer, carries substantial name recognition entering the 2025 free-agent market. However, his reliability as a long-term option is questionable. Although he displayed effectiveness as a run blocker for the Jets in 2024, his struggles in pass protection raise concerns, particularly seeing as he allowed five sacks and six penalties. Additionally, Smith's history of injuries is troubling, having not started more than 13 games in a season since 2015. Teams in search of a less costly tackle may consider Cam Robinson instead, who while also dealing with injuries, managed to start 17 games in 2024 with a more consistent performance than Smith.
In terms of running backs, while Elliott and Hunt are older players likely to attract short-term interest, Broncos running back Javonte Williams could appear as a long-term starter candidate. Williams, still only 25 in April, has shown potential but has struggled to maintain consistent production, averaging just 3.6 and 3.7 yards per carry over the last two seasons. Teams should avoid overvaluing him in free agency. Instead, they may want to consider Rico Dowdle of the Dallas Cowboys, who had a breakout season and established himself as the No. 1 option in Dallas with 1,328 scrimmage yards. Although Dowdle is slightly older than Williams at 27, he offers less tread on the tires due to fewer touches throughout his career.