As of now, twenty NFL franchises have claimed a Super Bowl title, a figure that has remained unchanged since the Philadelphia Eagles joined this elite group following the conclusion of the 2017 season. However, according to current odds from DraftKings, three teams among the top 10 Super Bowl favorites have yet to secure a win with the Vince Lombardi Trophy. This analysis will evaluate those three teams as well as the nine additional franchises that are still seeking their first Super Bowl victory in 2025.

Leading the pack in Super Bowl odds are the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have dominated the AFC East, clinching the division crown with 11 or more wins in five consecutive seasons, but they fell short of the Super Bowl in the previous year. The question arises: is this the year they finally break through? With the Kansas City Chiefs appearing vulnerable and the Baltimore Ravens disappointing in recent playoff appearances, the path to success seems clearer for a talented team like the Bills, who are blessed with the fifth-easiest schedule in the league, as noted by Sharp Football Analysis. The likelihood of the Bills securing their first championship stands at 20%.

The Cincinnati Bengals, despite finishing with 9-8 records over the past two seasons, possess significant untapped potential. Their offense ranked as the sixth-highest scoring under quarterback Joe Burrow, who had an MVP-worthy season in 2024, had the Bengals reached the playoffs. It’s crucial to remember that this team narrowly missed winning the Super Bowl in 2021 and challenged the Chiefs in a tightly contested 2022 AFC Championship game. However, they must contend with both the Ravens and Chiefs, among other contenders, within a competitive conference. With their impressive roster and experience in high-pressure situations, the Bengals' chances of breaking through in 2025 are assessed at 8%.

The Detroit Lions have also emerged as a strong contender, having led the NFC in terms of record (15-2), scoring margin (+222), and DVOA (34.8%) in 2024. Expectations remain high for the Lions, especially with a healthy Aidan Hutchinson expected to bolster their defense in 2025. Nonetheless, they are expected to face significant challenges owing to the NFL's third-most difficult schedule and intense competition within the NFC North. After falling short in critical moments last year, skepticism about their Super Bowl aspirations persists, resulting in a likelihood of just 6%.

The Los Angeles Chargers possess formidable potential, capable of supplanting the Chiefs as the leaders of the AFC West, especially if head coach Jim Harbaugh can maximize the talent of quarterback Justin Herbert. Following an 11-win season, during which Herbert delivered the best performance of his career supported by the league's top-rated scoring defense, the Chargers aim to build on that in 2025. However, they benefited from a favorable schedule last year, and the league may be better prepared for them in Harbaugh's second season. Given the competitive nature of their division, the Chargers' likelihood of reaching the Super Bowl is currently estimated at 3%.

The Houston Texans have the potential to enter the Super Bowl conversation if quarterback C.J. Stroud can recapture his outstanding form from his rookie season in 2023. However, the uncertainty surrounding Stroud's performance behind a struggling offensive line in 2024 raises concerns. While the Texans have made efforts to improve their offensive line this offseason, there is no assurance that these changes will benefit Stroud and the overall offense. Although they boast a roster with Super Bowl-level potential, they face a tough schedule that could hinder their playoff aspirations, leading to a probability of 2%.

The Jacksonville Jaguars also faced challenges in 2024, yet their recent winning records in 2022 and 2023 suggest a bounce-back is possible in 2025. Trevor Lawrence possesses the skill set necessary for success, provided he receives adequate support and remains healthy. The addition of Travis Hunter, the number two overall pick, alongside Brian Thomas Jr. in the receiving corps, could enhance the offensive unit. With a favorable schedule in a weak division and an overhauled coaching staff, there exists a sliver of possibility for the Jaguars to capitalize on their environment. Still, considering their significant struggles from the previous season, their chances of winning the Super Bowl are currently viewed at 2%.

The Arizona Cardinals's fortunes depend significantly on the performance of quarterback Kyler Murray and rookie standout Marvin Harrison Jr. Both players possess the potential to thrive in an offense that is undergoing a rebuild. While the NFC West has become increasingly competitive, their ability to dominate remains uncertain. Given the room for improvement and the presence of a seasoned quarterback, the Cardinals share a similar outlook as both Houston and Jacksonville, with a probability of 2%.

Despite J.J. McCarthy not being a rookie, the Minnesota Vikings face challenges as he missed the entire 2024 season due to a knee injury, rendering him a near-rookie when he takes the field in 2025. This situation limits expectations for what is otherwise a talented Vikings roster, especially considering the strength of their division. McCarthy's potential to excel with a strong supporting cast remains, but the prospect of clinching a Super Bowl victory appears more realistic for the 2026 season, leading to a likelihood of 2%.

Michael Penix Jr., though slightly more experienced than McCarthy, also finds himself surrounded by a talented roster, featuring skill position players and an improved offensive line. While the Falcons' defense may not match the Vikings', the path to success appears somewhat easier with a favorable schedule in a wide-open division. Despite Penix's elite potential, the road to Super Bowl contention in 2025 seems unlikely given the existing questions on the roster, resulting in a probability of 1%.

The Carolina Panthers enter a rebuilding period, with rookie quarterback Bryce Young carrying the hopes of becoming a franchise player. However, Young has yet to establish himself as a starter, and the defense yielded a league-high 31.4 points per game last season. The Panthers' quest for a Super Bowl championship is likely a distant dream, with a probability of less than 1%.

Similarly, the Tennessee Titans find themselves in a rebuilding phase, now featuring rookie quarterback Cam Ward, the first overall pick. Yet, after finishing last season with 14 losses, their immediate goal is to gain respectability, with hopes of becoming a contender in the years 2026 or 2027, resulting in a likelihood of less than 1%.

The Cleveland Browns are forecasted to continue their championship drought within the Super Bowl era, now stretching towards 60 years. With a dismal 3-14 record last season and the worst scoring margin in the league, their unresolved quarterback issues compound their challenges. Given the intensity of their competitive division, it is highly unlikely they will overcome their struggles, leading to a probability of less than 1%.