As of now, twenty NFL franchises have etched their names in history by winning at least one Super Bowl, a figure that has remained unchanged since the Philadelphia Eagles joined the ranks following the conclusion of the 2017 season. However, the 2025 season presents a compelling narrative, as three of the top 10 Super Bowl favorites, according to the latest odds from Moneyline, are teams that have yet to claim the coveted Vince Lombardi Trophy. In this analysis, we will explore these three franchises along with the nine other teams historically absent from the Super Bowl winner's circle and their prospects for success in 2025.

Leading the pack in terms of Super Bowl odds are the Buffalo Bills, who have consistently dominated the AFC East with five consecutive seasons of at least 11 wins. Despite their impressive regular-season performance, they narrowly missed the Super Bowl in the previous year. The Bills are on the precipice of potentially achieving their long-sought championship. The recent vulnerability of the Kansas City Chiefs, coupled with the Baltimore Ravens' disappointing trajectories in recent playoffs, has opened a pathway for the Bills. With a schedule ranked as the fifth-easiest by Sharp Football Analysis, they may have a clearer route toward success. Their likelihood of breaking through this season is rated at 20%.

The Cincinnati Bengals are another franchise poised for a breakout year, despite their recent records of 9-8 over the last two seasons. The team boasts the sixth-highest-scoring offense in the league, bolstered by quarterback Joe Burrow's stellar performance that could have garnered MVP consideration had they made the playoffs in 2024. Having narrowly lost the Super Bowl in 2021 and coming close against the Chiefs in the 2022 AFC Championship, the Bengals have demonstrated their capacity to compete at high levels. However, they face challenges within their division from the Ravens and contend against the Bills and Chiefs in a robust conference. With notable talent in critical positions, their chances of finally securing a championship are assessed at 8%.

The Detroit Lions rounded out the list of teams without a Super Bowl title but with high hopes heading into 2025. In the 2024 season, the Lions were the top performers in the NFC, achieving a remarkable record of 15-2, alongside a scoring margin of plus-222 and an impressive DVOA of 34.8%. The return of Aidan Hutchinson to full health could prove pivotal for their aspirations. Nevertheless, the Lions will grapple with the NFL's third-most difficult schedule and face stiff competition from the strongest division in the league. Their previous inability to capitalize in crucial moments raises some doubts despite their immense talent, leading to a projection of a 6% chance to win the Super Bowl.

The Los Angeles Chargers present another intriguing possibility. With high aspirations of dethroning the Chiefs in the AFC West, the Chargers’ fate may hinge on head coach Jim Harbaugh's impact and quarterback Justin Herbert's continued development. Benefiting from the best scoring defense in the league last year, the Chargers won 11 games. Building upon that success in 2025 could elevate their prospects significantly. However, the team enjoyed a relatively easy schedule in 2024, and with increased scrutiny expected in Harbaugh's second season, their chances are deemed uncertain, standing at just 3%.

For the Houston Texans, quarterback C.J. Stroud must reclaim the form that characterized his dazzling rookie season in 2023 for the team to emerge as a Super Bowl contender. Despite making adjustments to bolster the offensive line, Stroud's struggles last season raise questions about the team’s reliability. Furthermore, the Texans face a challenging schedule and a competitive division that could hinder their progress. With potential but considerable hurdles, their ceiling is recognized as Super Bowl-level, although many stars must align for a deep playoff run—resulting in a mere 2% likelihood.

The Jacksonville Jaguars face a pivotal moment in the 2025 season. After posting winning records over the prior two years, the Jaguars possess the talent needed to rebound from their struggles in 2024. Stars like quarterback Trevor Lawrence have demonstrated immense potential, particularly with the addition of top draft pick Travis Hunter to the receiving corps. The team benefits from a favorable schedule and plays in a weaker division, combined with an energized coaching staff following recent changes. However, after a disappointing previous season, their road to the Super Bowl still appears daunting, meriting an estimation of 2%.

In Arizona, the success of the Cardinals hinges on the dynamic between quarterback Kyler Murray and the promising young talent of Marvin Harrison Jr. Both players have the capacity to be game-changers, and while the team is in a rebuilding phase, the competitive landscape of the NFC West may provide opportunities for success. Their circumstances parallel those of Houston and Jacksonville, rated at 2%.

The Minnesota Vikings have much to prove, notably with quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who missed the entire 2024 season due to a knee injury. While technically not a rookie, McCarthy’s lack of experience presents a significant obstacle for a franchise eager to contend. The Vikings are armed with considerable talent; however, the pressure of their competitive division and schedule significantly dampens hopes for immediate success, resulting in a projection of 2%.

Similar to the Vikings, the Atlanta Falcons look to their quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to lead them into contention. Surrounded by talented skill position players and a robust offensive line, Penix has the potential for greatness. Although the defense shows signs of improvement, Penix's development remains vital. A soft schedule within an open division presents opportunities for a strong season, but the path to the Super Bowl remains unclear at this juncture, rating at just 1%.

The Carolina Panthers now find themselves in a rebuilding process, driven by the potential of quarterback Bryce Young, the number one overall pick in 2023. While Young shows promise, the team's overall defense struggled significantly last season. With the franchise still establishing itself and facing a challenging schedule ahead, their aspirations for the Super Bowl seem distant, with a likelihood of less than 1%.

The Tennessee Titans also navigate a rebuild, featuring rookie quarterback Cam Ward, the number one overall pick. However, after experiencing a 14-loss season, the Titans aim to establish a competitive foundation before considering championship aspirations. A projected timeline looks toward 2026 or 2027 for a serious contention bid, with a probability rating of less than 1%.

Lastly, the Cleveland Browns, saddled with the expectation of extending their championship drought to 60 years within the Super Bowl era, face considerable barriers. With a dismal record of 3-14 and lingering quarterback issues, the Browns find themselves in a particularly tough division that diminishes hopes for a successful season. Current evaluations place their chances peering into the realm of impossibility, likely rated at less than 1%.