As the 2025 NFL season approaches, many fantasy football managers are preparing their draft strategies, focusing not only on players to target but also on those to avoid based on draft costs. While securing a standout player can greatly enhance a team's chances of success, sidestepping first-round disappointments and early-round busts can be just as crucial. This analysis spotlights three notable running backs who may present too many red flags to justify their current elevated prices in drafts.

Christian McCaffrey's potential as a fantasy football asset is undeniable. Should he remain healthy throughout the season, he possesses the ability to be among the top performers in fantasy football. However, concerns about his durability linger. Over the past five seasons, McCaffrey has missed significant playing time, appearing in only seven games or fewer in three of those seasons, including a mere four games in 2024 and three in 2020. As he approaches his 30th birthday—a milestone often viewed as precarious for running backs—his performance in the last season further fueled doubts. Notably, his average of 5.4 yards per touch was the second-lowest of his career, and he failed to score any touchdowns for the first time. Despite the allure of his upside, it may be risky for fantasy managers to rely on him as a first-round pick, particularly given his history of injury and declining effectiveness.

Jahmyr Gibbs, who had a notable season with the Los Angeles Rams, presents an interesting case. His production statistics suggest that he was among the top fantasy scorers last season, which may support his current draft position. However, a deeper analysis of his performance reveals a concerning trend. Gibbs capitalized on a high volume of opportunities to generate a decent output, but considerations arise regarding potential changes in the Rams' offensive strategy. After achieving an average of 4.7 yards per touch in his first two seasons, his average fell to a career-low of 4.2 in the latest season, raising questions about his sustainability in future games. While the Rams have not made significant investments in alternative running backs and recently extended Gibbs' contract, there are concerns that he may not be the explosive playmaker needed to elevate the team's ground game. If significant issues arise, fantasy managers could find themselves in a precarious situation if they invest a high draft pick in his services.

Breece Hall stands out for his accomplishments but still has not established himself as an elite running back. Remarkably, Hall has yet to record a 1,000-yard rushing season. Moreover, he has not finished a season with double-digit touchdowns, raising questions about his ability to perform in goal-line situations. While some analysts highlight his contributions as a receiver, there is skepticism regarding his effectiveness under the passing leadership of Justin Fields. Fields, known for a completion percentage of 61.1%, has a history of inconsistent passing, with more games played than touchdown passes thrown. Furthermore, Fields' mobility could potentially limit Hall's rushing opportunities, complicating his value as a lead running back. Adding to this uncertainty, Jets coach Aaron Glenn has indicated a preference for a running back committee approach, which could significantly reduce Hall’s expected volume. Given the circumstances, it is surprising that Hall's average draft cost remains as high as it is considering the ambiguity surrounding his role and potential contributions.