As the 2025 NFL season approaches, many fantasy football managers who have engaged in thorough research are entering their draft rooms with specific players targeted for selection. However, it is equally important for these managers to consider players to avoid, particularly those who may not live up to their draft cost. Securing a league-winning player can significantly enhance a team's chances of success, but steering clear of first-round flops and early-round busts is just as vital to achieving overall victory.

Christian McCaffrey presents a compelling case as a potential top-tier fantasy player, boasting an undeniable upside if he remains healthy throughout the season. Nevertheless, the health-related concerns surrounding McCaffrey cannot be overlooked, given that he has been limited to seven games or fewer in three of the last five seasons. His most recent campaign included just four appearances in 2024 and three in 2020. Approaching his 30th birthday, a key age for running backs, raises additional red flags. His last season was marked by limited effectiveness; with 5.4 yards per touch, he recorded one of the lowest averages of his career, leaving his scoring column devoid of touchdowns for the first time. Although his potential may entice managers, the elevated cost associated with selecting him in the first round risks overshadowing the valid concerns about his health and productivity.

Javonte Williams had a productive season last year, ranking among the top five running backs in standard fantasy points. On the surface, this performance justifies his current draft cost. However, a closer examination reveals that his statistical success may have stemmed from an inflated number of opportunities rather than consistent elite performance. Williams struggled with a decline in efficiency, seeing his yards per touch drop from 4.7 in his first two seasons to a career-low of 4.2 last year. Despite the Los Angeles Rams extending his contract and not pursuing running back alternatives vigorously, concerns about his ability to produce explosive plays and his elusiveness cast a shadow over his potential. This raises the possibility of a significant underperformance, particularly if he retains a late second- or early third-round draft cost.

The case of Breece Hall adds another layer of complexity when assessing running back prospects. Despite the potential presence of a 1,000-yard rushing season, which is often viewed as a benchmark for elite status, Hall has yet to achieve this milestone in his career. His inability to cross the double-digit touchdown threshold further complicates his appeal. While some might argue that Hall maintains value through his participation in the passing game, concerns arise regarding his effectiveness with quarterback Justin Fields, a player with a career passer rating of 61.1 and more games played (50) than touchdowns recorded (45). This raises questions about whether Hall will receive enhanced opportunities in the passing game. Additionally, Fields' capability as a runner may limit Hall's rushing opportunities. Adding to the uncertainty, New York Jets coach Aaron Glenn has indicated a desire for a committee approach among running backs, suggesting that Hall's volume could be further diminished, making his average third-round draft cost seem misaligned with expected production.