As the 2025 NFL season approaches, many fantasy football managers prepare diligently for their drafts. Those who have conducted thorough research tend to enter the draft environment with specific players in mind to target. However, an equally important consideration is identifying players to avoid at their typical draft costs. While securing a league-winner could significantly enhance one’s chances of success, steering clear of first-round flops and early busts can be just as crucial.

In the running back position, attrition impacts athletes more than others, making it essential to highlight three players who exhibit concerning signs that may not justify their elevated draft costs. Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers represents a compelling but risky option. His potential to be the best player in fantasy if he remains healthy is evidently enticing. However, the 'if healthy' caveat looms large, as McCaffrey has missed significant time in three of the past five seasons, including just four appearances in 2024 and three back in 2020. As he approaches his 30th birthday, a milestone often seen as precarious for running backs, his previous season remains notable for its lack of impact. McCaffrey averaged just 5.4 yards per touch, the second-lowest of his career, and he failed to register any touchdowns, raising concerns about the viability of investing heavily in him during the first round.

Similarly, Jamaal Williams of the New Orleans Saints presents another point of contention. While he ranked among the top scorers in standard fantasy points last season, a deeper dive into his performance reveals a stark reality. His production was heavily derived from a significant opportunity volume, which may not be as abundant in the upcoming season. Following an impressive 4.7 yards per touch in his first two years, Williams experienced a decline, averaging only 4.2 yards last season. Though the Saints have committed to Williams through an extended contract, there is a growing need for more dynamic play in the ground game. His lack of explosiveness and elusiveness raises red flags, and if he struggles to maintain his performance, those who invested second- or third-round picks in him may find themselves in a difficult position.

The case of Breece Hall from the New York Jets adds another layer of intrigue to this discussion. Despite the standard benchmark for elite running backs being a 1,000-yard rushing season, Hall has yet to achieve this milestone. With a career yet to feature a double-digit touchdown campaign, Hall's case for value also hinges on his productivity in the passing game. However, uncertainty arises with the arrival of quarterback Justin Fields, whose past performance includes a completion rate of just 61.1 percent. Given that Fields has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in his career, the potential for Hall to maintain his receiving efficiency is questionable. Furthermore, Fields’ dual-threat capabilities may limit Hall's rushing opportunities. Jets coach Aaron Glenn's preference for a running back-by-committee approach introduces additional uncertainty regarding Hall’s volume. Consequently, the disparity between Hall’s average third-round draft cost and his on-field performance projections may signal caution.