As Memorial Day weekend approaches, many across America prepare for the unofficial start of summer, marked by the opening of swimming pools and the firing up of grills. For fantasy football enthusiasts, this season signifies the imminent arrival of draft season. While it may not have arrived yet—major leagues such as the Scott Fish Bowl are on the horizon—now is the time for fantasy managers to begin their research and evaluations on potential players.

Consensus opinions among fantasy managers and analysts will undoubtedly exist, but differing perspectives are also common. In these instances of disagreement, one can often uncover significant value. If a majority of the community anticipates a particular player's success, it is likely that the player will perform well, despite occasional misses. Conversely, increased dissent toward a player's outlook warrants scrutiny to determine whether the prevailing consensus is too optimistic or pessimistic. Analysts with a strong track record can provide invaluable insights in these situations.

For instance, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills usually ranks among the first quarterbacks to be selected in fantasy drafts. Current Average Draft Position (ADP) data indicates that he is being taken late in Round 2 as the 21st overall pick. Analyst Kendall Valenzuela notes that Allen has consistently finished among the top three quarterbacks in fantasy points per game over the last five seasons. Last season, Allen showcased a more cautious style, drastically reducing turnovers to just five interceptions, all while achieving 3,731 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. However, concerns arise from his relatively underwhelming group of receivers, leading to a heavy reliance on rushing yards, where he amassed 531 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns.

While many see value in Allen's early ADP, some caution against selecting him so early in the draft, particularly if only one quarterback position is to be filled. Taking him at the back of Round 2 could create a gap at other positions such as wide receiver or running back. Allen's reduced passing yardage last season compounded this concern, as he threw for his lowest total since 2019. Despite his dual-threat capabilities, fantasy managers might find it wiser to hold off on selecting a quarterback until later in the draft.

Justin Fields, now a starting quarterback for the New York Jets, offers an intriguing option with an early ADP of QB15. Following a tumultuous start to his career across three teams, Fields seeks redemption in 2025. His speed and ability to make deep throws have caught the attention of teammates. Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams praised Fields for his exceptional talent and work ethic, positioning him as a top dual-threat quarterback in today's game. Fields’ past performance demonstrates his capability to generate fantasy points through rushing, making him an attractive choice for fantasy managers.

In his 2022 season with the Chicago Bears, Fields netted over 1,000 rushing yards—the third quarterback in history to do so—while finishing the year sixth in fantasy points per game. Even in six starts last year, he maintained a respectable average of approximately 18.9 fantasy points per game. As such, Fields presents excellent value in the later rounds of drafts, especially due to his potential to outperform his early ADP.

Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles enters the summer with a high ADP, selected as the third overall pick in early fantasy drafts. Last season, he achieved over 2,000 rushing yards and led all running backs with 22.0 PPR points per game. Moreover, he benefits from playing behind one of the NFL's premier offensive lines. However, analysts, including Pat Fitzmaurice, express caution regarding Barkley’s increased workload in the previous season. His total touches exceeded 482, including playoff games—an unusually high number that raises concerns for a running back of his age who has sustained injuries in the past.

While Barkley’s remarkable output warrants attention, historical trends suggest that running backs experiencing a high volume of touches tend to regress the following season. For instance, runners with 370 or more carries historically see a substantial decrease in performance. Additionally, every running back surpassing the 2,000-yard milestone in a season has recorded a decline in their subsequent performance, often losing over 1,000 yards. As a result, Barkley faces mounting pressure to replicate last season's production in 2025, an expectation that may not be realistic.

D'Andre Swift of the Chicago Bears provides a contrasting profile as a frequently debated figure among fantasy managers. Following a difficult previous season, where his performance included a career-low average of 3.8 yards per carry, Swift's current ADP falls outside of the top-25 running backs. Despite this, analyst Ted Chymz argues that the negative perception surrounding Swift has become excessive. Still just 26, Swift possesses a proven skill set and is positioned to lead a Chicago backfield that has seen recent improvements in their offensive line and overall scheme.

With an upward trajectory anticipated for the Bears' offensive performance this year, Swift may offer considerable fantasy value despite a rocky past. His productivity could return closer to his previous ceiling if he receives a significant workload, especially in a more rehabilitated offensive structure offered by new coaching.

As the rookie class arrives, Ashton Jeanty stands out as a premier target; his performance at Boise State positioned him as the sixth overall pick in the 2025 draft. Early ADP data indicates he is being drafted as the eighth overall pick and fourth among running backs, suggesting significant anticipation around his impact. Raiders edge-rusher Maxx Crosby has complimented Jeanty's work ethic and talent, bolstering expectations for the rookie's debut season.

Yet, a cautious approach is warranted for Jeanty, as his considerable college workload may lead to a challenging transition into the NFL. Facing a higher level of competition and potentially operating behind a subpar offensive line could complicate his immediate fantasy output. Historically, rookie running backs experiencing such high expectations often struggle to meet the lofty standards set before them.

Marvin Harrison Jr., last year's first-round rookie, experienced disappointments in his inaugural season with the Arizona Cardinals. While he ranked high in air yards, his target share and expected fantasy points per game revealed his struggle to convert opportunities into results. Despite these challenges, he displayed promising potential, and sentiment around him appears to be shifting positively, particularly following reports of improving chemistry with quarterback Kyler Murray.

Elevating expectations, Harrison has added muscle this offseason, positioning him to take advantage of the resultant increase in target share. Given the limited options supporting him in the Cardinals' wide receiver corps, a bounce-back season remains within reach.

Tyreek Hill, historically considered one of the league's premier wide receivers, enters the 2025 season with mixed sentiments surrounding his future following a previous lackluster campaign. Reports from Dolphins coach Robert Prince indicate strong communication and commitment from Hill, hinting at a resolve to improve upon last year's performance. While there is hope for a resurgence, his advanced metrics indicate a troubling decline, raising doubts as to whether he can genuinely reclaim his form or if age will become a limiting factor.

Similarly, Chris Olave, once regarded as a top-12 wide receiver, faces uncertainty after concussions hindered his performance last season. Despite the pressing injury concerns, Saints head coach Kellen Moore remains optimistic about Olave's potential and adaptability this year, highlighting a solid foundational talent when healthy. Provided he can return to form amid a critical quarterback situation, Olave could prove to be a valuable asset to fantasy managers.

On the front of tight ends, Travis Kelce, long considered the gold standard at his position, showed signs of decline in his previous season. At 35 years old, his statistics fell below typical standards, marking the lowest production he had seen throughout his career. Observers approach his upcoming season with skepticism regarding his anticipated performance, especially given the unpredictability of player regression as they age.

Kyle Pitts, once a highly touted rookie, has faced struggles since his breakout season, resulting in many to question his viability as a tight end. Nonetheless, optimistic forecasts emerge around his potential for growth, particularly under better offensive coaching. Analysts anticipate positive developments in Pitts' career trajectory, placing him on the list of potential bounce-back candidates for the upcoming season.