The Approach to Fantasy Football Draft Season

As Memorial Day weekend approaches, many across the United States embrace the unofficial start of summer with barbecues, pool openings, and the end of the school year. For fantasy football enthusiasts, this season signals the impending arrival of draft time. While it may not yet be here, leagues such as the Scott Fish Bowl are just around the corner. Now is the critical time for fantasy managers to dive into player research and evaluations in order to maximize their chances of success in the upcoming season.
The consensus among fantasy experts will understandably yield agreement on many players, but it is the differing opinions on specific athletes that often reveal hidden values. For instance, if a majority believes a player will excel, he is likely to do so, barring any significant downturns. However, when a split opinion arises, it becomes essential to assess whether the general perception of a player is misguided. Particularly when an insightful analyst voices skepticism, it is worth taking note. Josh Allen, for example, consistently emerges as a top fantasy quarterback. Early average draft position (ADP) data indicates that Allen is typically selected at the end of the second round, making him the 21st overall pick in many drafts. Analyst Kendall Valenzuela from Fantasy Life offers justification for his high ranking, citing Allen's impressive consistency over the past five seasons and highlighting last year's improvements that included a career-low in interceptions.
However, selecting Allen at such an early point in drafts comes with caveats. The structure of a one-quarterback league raises the question of opportunity cost; taking a quarterback in the second round often creates a void at other key positions, such as running back or wide receiver, which may not be worth the marginal advantage gained over later-round quarterbacks. Last season, Allen posted his fewest passing yards since 2019 (3,731 yards), elevating the reliance on his rushing performance for fantasy value. While he still finished fourth in fantasy points among quarterbacks due to his dual-threat capabilities—accumulating 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns—waiting to select a quarterback later in the draft may lead to better overall roster construction.
For Justin Fields, the 2025 campaign represents another opportunity to establish himself as a reliable starter. Now perched atop the depth chart for the New York Jets, Fields embarks on a season focused on redemption after a tumultuous past that included being benched during the previous year. Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams emphasizes Fields' imposing speed and overall skill set, remarking on his potential to thrive as a dual-threat quarterback. Fields posted an impressive ADP of QB15, mainly due to his prior production. In 2022, he became the third quarterback in history to rush for over 1,000 yards in a single season, finishing sixth in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks. Even during a challenging 2024 season, Fields managed to celebrate his ability, averaging 18.9 fantasy points per game over six starts, indicating strong upside potential if he continues to harness his mobility and talent.
Conversely, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is attracting significant attention in early drafts, with an ADP securing him as the third overall pick. Following an impressive year that included over 2,000 rushing yards and 22.0 PPR points per game—best among running backs—Barkley continues to showcase his elite status. However, concerns arise regarding his heavy workload last season, which included 482 total touches. Fantasy analyst Pat Fitzmaurice includes caution in the conversation: with a history of injuries and a high volume of activity throughout the 2024 season, concerns about regression loom large. Statistical trackers have noted that running backs who accumulate more than 370 carries typically experience notable regression the following season, raising flags regarding the risk of Barkley sustaining a similar level of performance in 2025.
Barkley's situation echoes that of D'Andre Swift, who appears often overlooked. His tenure with the Bears last season saw disappointing per-carry averages and minimal success in breaking tackles, leading to a less than favorable revisit this year. Yet, Swift's potential remains intact, according to Ted Chymz of Fantasy Pros. Swift, only 26 years old, offers a versatile skill set as a probable workhorse in an imaginative offense led by offensive mastermind Ben Johnson. Despite managerial apprehension toward Swift, the restructuring of the Bears' offensive line—combined with a lack of notable new additions to the backfield—positions him for potentially increased opportunities and production.
Ashton Jeanty, the standout rookie from Boise State, is generating considerable excitement and investment among fantasy managers, being selected as high as the eighth overall pick. Jeanty's commanding performance last year signifies substantial potential; however, reviewers accompany that projection with caution regarding the workload and competition levels he will face in the NFL. Raiders star Maxx Crosby has praised Jeanty’s work ethic and humility, commenting positively on his early contributions to the team.
For fantasy managers hesitant about Jeanty’s draft position, it is crucial to consider historical comparisons. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. endured a promising yet lackluster rookie year after high expectations, finishing as the WR30 despite solid overall metrics. Analysts note that players often face challenges in their transition from college to the professional ranks, particularly regarding competition and efficiency. Harrison's season included a notable air yards position, but he suffered from instances of catchable balls when targeted.
Regarding veteran receivers, Tyreek Hill is in the midst of a transformative season after experiencing a downturn in 2024. Despite positive reports regarding Hill's interactions with new receivers' coach Robert Prince, concerns remain about his production metrics since turning 30. Advanced metrics indicate a troubling decline in targets per game and yardage post-catch, and questions regarding quarterback performance further complicate Hill's prospects for a bounce-back season.
Similarly, Chris Olave is experiencing a notable drop in perceptions following injury troubles that hampered his availability last season. New Orleans Saints head coach Kellen Moore expresses confidence in Olave, acknowledging his skills and versatility as an important asset to the team. The presence of unresolved quarterback dynamics in New Orleans adds complexity, but if Olave maintains health, he could emerge as a leading target in a pass-heavy offense.
Lastly, tensions linger around Travis Kelce, whose previous status as the dominant tight end may be under threat as he ages. After a lackluster 2024 season marked by diminished statistical outputs, the conversation shifts toward the level of expectation for the Chiefs star in this upcoming year. Many analysts suggest skepticism regarding predictions for a resurgence, recognizing age-related decline as a significant barrier to maintaining past performances. Kelce's current ADP reflects a positioning closer to ceiling expectations rather than floor realities, further fueling debates over selecting the veteran in early drafts.








