The landscape of baseball statistics has evolved significantly with the advent of advanced metrics, providing deeper insights into on-field production. Gone are the days when analysts relied solely on surface-level statistics to predict a player's future performance. Metrics such as expected batting average, batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and average exit velocity have emerged as invaluable tools for assessing potential regression in player performance. This article identifies ten hitters heading into the 2025 season who may face challenges, as indicated by various red flags in their advanced metrics. In some cases, these players have already begun to show signs of regression, particularly following a strong first half of the previous season. It is important to note that this analysis does not guarantee that these players will struggle in 2025, and the term 'bust' can be interpreted in various ways, but it is prudent to lower expectations for these individuals.

Michael Busch, acquired by the Chicago Cubs from the Los Angeles Dodgers last offseason, began the 2025 season as the team's starting first baseman. The 27-year-old displayed a productive rookie campaign, participating in 152 games and achieving a 118 OPS+, along with 28 doubles, 21 home runs, and 65 RBI, contributing 2.8 WAR. The decision to trade Cody Bellinger to the New York Yankees illustrated Chicago's confidence in Busch as their first baseman of both the present and the future. Despite these achievements, Busch's statistics highlight potential concerns. He recorded one of the largest discrepancies between his batting average (.248) and expected batting average (.217, placing him in the 8th percentile among qualified hitters). Though he maintained a respectable walk rate of 11.1 percent, his modest batted-ball data suggests a likelihood of regression. This regression appeared to surface in the second half of the season, where he posted a disappointing .216/.303/.402 line in 231 plate appearances after the All-Star break.

Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates possesses some of the most remarkable physical attributes in baseball, standing at 6'7" with exceptional speed and power. After missing much of the 2023 season due to a fractured fibula, Cruz rebounded to produce a 113 OPS+ across 146 games in 2024, tallying 34 doubles, 21 home runs, 76 RBI, and 22 steals, accumulating 2.5 WAR. His transition from shortstop to center field could potentially allow him to concentrate more on his offensive game. However, Cruz faces the challenge of a high 30 percent strikeout rate, with little improvement in his plate discipline since entering the majors. In 2024, he struck out 181 times, marking a 30.2 percent strikeout rate. His performance against pitches was telling; he hit .295 against fastballs but just .205 against breaking pitches, indicating that opposing teams may adjust their pitch strategies until he proves capable of making necessary adjustments.

The San Francisco Giants' 2019 fourth-round draft pick, Tyler Fitzgerald, rose to prominence last year after the failures of Nick Ahmed and Marco Luciano to secure the starting shortstop position. The 27-year-old made a significant impact with a .280/.334/.497 line, achieving a 136 OPS+ along with 19 doubles, 15 home runs, 34 RBI, 17 steals, and 2.8 WAR in 96 games. Fitzgerald finished fourth on the Giants roster in terms of WAR, following only stars such as Matt Chapman, Logan Webb, and Ryan Walker. Despite this commendable performance, Fitzgerald stands out as a regression candidate entering 2025. His batting average was .280, but his expected batting average fell to .227, representing the largest gap of any qualified hitter. Moreover, his .380 BABIP is unlikely to be sustainable given his lackluster batted-ball metrics, suggesting a substantial decline could follow his unanticipated success in 2024.

After an unremarkable season with the Seattle Mariners in 2023, Teoscar Hernández signed a one-year, $23.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. This decision proved advantageous, as he recorded a 137 OPS+ and a career-high 33 home runs while hitting behind a lineup featuring stars like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman. Hernández also performed admirably in the World Series, batting 7-for-20 with a home run, leading to a three-year, $66 million extension with the Dodgers in December. Nonetheless, despite his impressive statistics, Hernández experienced a decline in several key areas compared to his previous season. His hard-hit rate decreased from 49.4 to 46.8 percent, while his average exit velocity dropped from 91.3 to 90.6 mph. His expected batting average also fell from .258 to .250, raising concerns about his ability to maintain peak performance levels. Should he revert closer to the .741 OPS and 108 OPS+ he exhibited in Seattle, it may be challenging not to consider him a mild bust.

Joey Ortiz, acquired by the Milwaukee Brewers as a centerpiece in the trade involving Corbin Burnes and the Baltimore Orioles, began his rookie season at third base but is viewed as the shortstop of the future as Willy Adames enters a walk year. Ortiz posted a 101 OPS+ while contributing 25 doubles, 11 home runs, 60 RBI, and 11 steals, resulting in a 2.7 WAR rookie season. His performance has solidified his status as the starting shortstop for 2025. However, Ortiz's offensive output significantly declined after an impressive first half, signaling potential issues. His performance raises questions about his overall hitting capabilities – was he simply a good hitter struggling in the latter half, or does he lack the quality to consistently succeed at the major league level? While his defensive skills provide a solid foundation, the offensive drop-off from Adames to Ortiz could be substantial.

Isaac Paredes was a key piece acquired by the Houston Astros in the blockbuster deal that saw Kyle Tucker move to the Cubs. Still only 25 years old and with club control through 2027, Paredes has spent parts of five seasons in the majors. After an impressive 31-home run season in 2023, Paredes earned his first All-Star selection last year but was traded to the Cubs at the deadline. Nonetheless, Paredes emerged as a clear candidate for power regression. Following his breakout season, his home run total fell to 19, despite receiving 70 additional plate appearances. After the trade, he struggled, registering a .223/.325/.307 line over 52 games with the Cubs and placing in the 11th percentile for expected slugging percentage. With a career batting average of .232 and middling defensive capabilities, Paredes' value is heavily reliant on his power production, which increasingly appears to be in question.

Jurickson Profar, previously the top prospect in baseball while in the Texas Rangers system, found his stride in his 11th season in the major leagues. Posting a .280/.380/.459 line for a 134 OPS+ with 29 doubles, 24 home runs, 85 RBI, and 3.6 WAR, he signed a one-year, $1 million deal with the San Diego Padres and subsequently won a Silver Slugger award and earned All-Star honors. He has since joined the Atlanta Braves on a three-year, $42 million agreement. Despite these achievements, Profar's performance raises potential concerns. Following a 3-WAR season in 2022, he joined the Colorado Rockies, only to struggle significantly, recording a 77 OPS+ and negative 1.7 WAR over 111 games before being released. Although his batted-ball data showed promise last season, including a career-high 44.4 percent hard-hit rate, he exhibited regression signs with a .243 average and a notable decline in his OPS after the All-Star break. The question remains whether he can avoid another letdown after departing from San Diego.

Victor Robles was claimed by the Seattle Mariners last summer after being released by the Washington Nationals and enjoyed a revitalized performance, hitting .328/.393/.467 for a 155 OPS+ with 24 extra-base hits and 30 steals across 77 games. His productive season led to a two-year, $9.75 million extension in August, as the 27-year-old seeks to solidify his role as an everyday player in 2025. However, Robles, once a 4.4-WAR player for the 2019 World Series champion Nationals, faced substantial struggles, accumulating just 1.4 WAR in 341 games in the five seasons that followed. His .370 BABIP is unlikely to be sustainable due to his underwhelming batted-ball metrics. Despite the Mariners’ minimal financial commitment, Robles is expected to secure a starting position in the outfield.

Ezequiel Tovar's season with the Colorado Rockies in 2024 showcased much promise, including an NL-leading 45 doubles, a total of 75 extra-base hits, and earning his first Gold Glove award at shortstop during a 3.8-WAR season. Following his solid rookie campaign in 2023, the Rockies signed him to a seven-year, $63.5 million extension, a deal that quickly appears advantageous for the team. Tovar remains young, not turning 24 until August, and is still a few years away from entering his prime. Nonetheless, beneath his strong offensive numbers lies concerning data; Tovar amassed a staggering 200 strikeouts, resulting in a lower-than-expected 103 OPS+. His overall performance, including just 23 walks and a .295 on-base percentage, displayed troubling trends, with declines noted in both his walk rate (4.1 to 3.3 percent) and strikeout rate (27.0 to 28.8 percent) in his second full season. These indicators suggest a need for keen adjustments to avoid being exploited by opposing pitchers.

Connor Wong emerged as the primary catcher for the Boston Red Sox during the 2024 season after being the last player remaining from the package received in the deal that sent Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 28-year-old had a career year at the plate, with a .280/.333/.425 line resulting in a 110 OPS+, including 24 doubles, 13 home runs, and 52 RBI in 487 plate appearances. However, Wong is another player among this group facing potential regression issues. His batting average of .280 coupled with an expected batting average of only .231 suggests a concern for sustainability, ranking second among qualified hitters for the largest gap between the two statistics. Moreover, he performed poorly in several key metrics, landing in the 20th percentile in hard-hit rate, 11th percentile in average exit velocity, and 18th percentile for expected slugging. These statistics raise doubts about his ability to replicate his offensive success from the previous year.