NHL Salary Cap Increases: Implications for Key Teams
After experiencing years of stagnation, the NHL salary cap is once again on the rise, increasing from $83.5 million to $88 million for the 2024-25 season. Expectations are that the cap could reach approximately $92.5 million or even higher for the 2025-26 season. This increase is poised to impact every team in the league, though certain franchises stand to benefit more significantly in the short term due to their current roster and contract situations.
The Toronto Maple Leafs, in particular, face intense scrutiny regarding their salary-cap situation each year because of the significant financial commitments they have made to core players such as Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares. The team consistently spends to the cap limit, with the aim to secure a Stanley Cup victory, a feat they have not achieved since the Original Six era. While Matthews and Nylander have long-term deals in place, the upcoming offseason presents pivotal decisions for the organization as Marner and Tavares are set to enter unrestricted free agency after this season. Should the Maple Leafs underperform again in the playoffs, there may be an opportunity to reevaluate their core. However, should they succeed, acquiring additional salary-cap space will be crucial for retaining key players or potentially bringing in new star talent. Currently, Toronto has $64.6 million allocated to 16 players for the next season, not accounting for negotiations involving Marner and Tavares or rising stars like Matthew Knies, alongside the pressing need for roster improvements.
The Colorado Avalanche are another contender that would greatly benefit from an increase in the salary cap. With $71.5 million already committed to their 2025-26 roster, the future of superstar forward Mikko Rantanen looms large, as he may become an unrestricted free agent. Given Rantanen's impact on the team, losing him would not be an option unless he wishes to depart. Retaining him is essential, especially as he continues to be a pivotal player entering his prime years. The Avalanche also anticipate the return of captain Gabriel Landeskog and face decisions regarding free agents like Jonathan Drouin. Additionally, the team's goaltending situation is in dire need of resolution, with only Justus Annunen under contract for the coming season. With only 13 players signed for the next season and approximately $22 million to fill the rest of the roster, the necessity for a rising salary cap is evident as post-Rantanen deal allocations could further constrict their options.
The New York Rangers also grapple with uncertainty surrounding next season's lineup, as management evaluates the potential of trading core players. Regardless of the outcome, it is expected that the Rangers will fully utilize their salary cap, aiming for deep playoff success and a Stanley Cup Final appearance. Central to this ambition is starting goalie Igor Shesterkin, whose re-signing is of utmost importance. Known to seek a contract between $11-13 million per year, this impending deal will significantly impact the team's salary-space flexibility. The Rangers also have to consider extensions for younger players like Kaapo Kakko and K'Andre Miller, while looking at external acquisitions to enhance their roster. The possibility of trading Jacob Trouba could provide much-needed salary cap relief, but continuous increases in the salary ceiling would bolster their situation further.
For the Edmonton Oilers, the presence of superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl necessitates a strategy of treating each season as an "all-in" scenario. The upcoming rise in the salary cap is critical for both next season and the 2025-26 season when McDavid will begin a new contract expected to surpass Draisaitl’s $14 million annual deal. This could result in the Oilers having two players accounting for nearly $30 million in cap space, emphasizing the need for effective team-building around them. Short-term challenges include restricted free agent defenseman Evan Bouchard and five forwards slated to become unrestricted free agents, creating multiple openings on the roster that require filling. The Oilers also face the imperative to enhance various roster aspects, particularly in depth on both offense and defense, along with goaltending solutions, making increasing cap space more crucial.
Although the Vegas Golden Knights do not face a significant number of expiring contracts this season, their front office is anticipated to pursue high-profile talent as it has in past seasons. A notable area of focus is their goaltending situation, with no current contracts in that position for the upcoming season. The potential availability of a star goaltender such as Igor Shesterkin would be hard for the franchise to overlook if it were to enter free agency. The Golden Knights have consistently demonstrated a willingness to invest in top talent, suggesting that while they may not be desperate for extra salary-cap space, any increase would allow greater flexibility in pursuing marquee names.