Max Scherzer has the opportunity to earn up to $325,000 in performance incentives as part of his one-year, $15.5 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, as reported by Jon Heyman of Moneyline. The contract includes several individual performance triggers, the most significant of which involves Scherzer winning his fourth Cy Young Award. The specific performance incentives are structured as follows: $150,000 for winning the Cy Young Award, with progressively smaller bonuses of $125,000 for second place, $100,000 for third, $75,000 for fourth, and $50,000 for fifth; additionally, Scherzer could earn $50,000 for being selected as an All-Star, $50,000 for winning a Gold Glove Award, another $50,000 for being named World Series MVP, and lastly, $25,000 for League Championship Series MVP.

Despite the potential bonuses, it appears the chances of Scherzer meeting these incentives are slim. According to PECOTA projections, Toronto is anticipated to finish third in the American League East with an estimated total of 85 wins this season. While the Blue Jays have bolstered their roster with the acquisitions of Scherzer, outfielder Anthony Santander, and second baseman Andrés Giménez, they do not appear to be strong contenders for the championship at this time. Furthermore, Scherzer has not participated in an All-Star game nor received any votes for the Cy Young Award since 2021. The 40-year-old pitcher displayed signs of declining performance in the previous season, completing 27 starts with a record of 13-6 and a 3.77 ERA, coupled with a 4.32 FIP, before being sidelined by a muscle strain. His 2024 season was even more challenging, as injuries limited him to just nine appearances.

Taking a one-year gamble on Scherzer was a strategic decision for the Blue Jays, particularly after their failure to land superstar Juan Soto. The team had sufficient financial resources available and viewed Scherzer as capable enough to serve as a mid-rotation starter. Should Scherzer manage to recapture his elite form for one more season, the total expenditure of less than $16 million could turn out to be a substantial bargain for Toronto.