Evaluating MLB Draft Success Over the Last 15 Years

The world of Major League Baseball's first-year player draft has always posed a greater risk compared to its NBA and NFL counterparts. Even the most promising selections often require years of development in the minors before joining the big leagues, with top 10 picks occasionally failing to materialize as major league players.

So, which teams have been the most effective at unearthing future stars among their first-round picks from the years 2010 to 2024? In this analysis, we will examine all signed first-round selections, including supplementary and compensatory picks, totaling over 600 selections.

Ranking the Teams

The ranking is primarily based on the average Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for signed first-round picks, while also taking the average pick number into account. The likelihood of a No. 1 pick succeeding is undoubtedly much greater than that of a No. 30 pick.

Standout Picks & Busts

San Francisco Giants

Average WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 1.18

Crown Jewel: OF Wyatt Langford, No. 4, 2023 - Langford has had an impressive start to his career.

Biggest Bust: C Joey Bart, No. 2, 2018 - Bart struggled to find success with the Giants before a rebound with the Pirates.

Tampa Bay Rays

Average WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 1.78

Crown Jewel: LHP Blake Snell, No. 52, 2011 - Winner of the Cy Young Award, Snell has been a valuable asset.

Biggest Bust: LHP/DH Brendan McKay, No. 4, 2017 - Injury issues plagued his career.

Seattle Mariners

Average WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.31

Crown Jewel: RHP Logan Gilbert, No. 14, 2018 - Key contributor in ending the Mariners' postseason drought.

Biggest Bust: LHP Danny Hultzen, No. 2, 2011 - Was unable to make a significant impact due to injury.

Kansas City Royals

Average WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.04

Crown Jewel: SS Bobby Witt Jr., No. 2, 2019 - Emerging as one of the game’s elite players.

Biggest Bust: OF Bubba Starling, No. 5, 2011 - Took years to reach the majors and struggled to make an impact.

Detroit Tigers

Average WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.35

Crown Jewel: OF Riley Greene, No. 5, 2019 - Named an All-Star recently with impressive numbers.

Biggest Bust: 1B Spencer Torkelson, No. 1, 2020 - Has faced scrutiny for underwhelming performance amid high expectations.

Atlanta Braves

Average WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.41

Crown Jewel: 3B Austin Riley, No. 41, 2015 - Became one of MLB’s most valuable players from 2021-23.

Biggest Bust: LHP Ian Anderson, No. 3, 2016 - Initially strong performance curtailed by injuries.

Milwaukee Brewers

Average WAR Per Signed First-Round Pick: 2.41

Crown Jewel: 2B Brice Turang, No. 21, 2018 - Valuable both offensively and defensively.

Biggest Bust: OF Corey Ray, No. 5, 2016 - Struggled to see success at the major league level.

Overall Trends

While some teams have thrived in recent drafts, others have struggled, leading to longer rebuilding periods. With potential future talent coming through the pipeline, teams must continually assess their draft strategies to find the next generation of MLB stars.