Introduction

The MLB free agency market is heating up as teams prepare for the winter spending spree. With several high-profile players still available, speculation is rife regarding which teams will emerge as big spenders. This article categorizes all 30 MLB teams based on their anticipated spending aggression for the upcoming season.

Spending Tiers: An Overview

This analysis ranks teams from least to most aggressive in their potential free-agent spending, with a focus on future payrolls and spending intentions rather than just previous expenditures.

Early Spending Tier: Low Expectations

• 30. Colorado Rockies: Final 2025 Payroll: $124 million / Estimated 2026 Payroll: $97 million. The Rockies are known for sporadic big deals but are unlikely to be aggressive this offseason.
• 29. Washington Nationals: Final 2025 Payroll: $118 million / Estimated 2026 Payroll: $93 million. Once big spenders, the Nationals are now in a directionless phase with little intention to increase payroll.
• 28. Minnesota Twins: Final 2025 Payroll: $136 million / Estimated 2026 Payroll: $96 million. After a roster overhaul, expect a cautious approach as they aim to regain fan trust.
• 27. St. Louis Cardinals: Final 2025 Payroll: $144 million / Estimated 2026 Payroll: $108 million. Rebuilding efforts suggest minimal spending this winter.
• 26. Oakland Athletics: Final 2025 Payroll: $79 million / Estimated 2026 Payroll: $75 million. Caution prevails despite some payroll increase discussions.

Mid-Tier Contenders: Overextended Budgets

• 24. Milwaukee Brewers: $123 million / $136 million. Low free-agent spending is typical for the Brewers this season.
• 23. Kansas City Royals: $138 million / $139 million. Their recent spending spree may not continue as budget concerns loom.
• 22. Tampa Bay Rays: $79 million / $84 million. The Rays have made some moves, but a cautious approach seems likely.

Potential Up-and-Comers: Contenders with Caution

• 21. Houston Astros: $224 million / $225 million. The Astros may continue spending but face tight luxury tax constraints.
• 20. Arizona Diamondbacks: $188 million / $145 million. Expect some restraint despite occasional splurges.
• 19. Texas Rangers: $224 million / $169 million. The Rangers can spend but seem intent on lowering payroll.

Significant Flexibility: Market Players

• 15. Cincinnati Reds: $119 million / $107 million. The Reds have indicated they’ll maintain their payroll and may seek impactful additions.
• 14. Cleveland Guardians: $102 million / $75 million. They are historically low spenders but might surprise this offseason.

Big-Spending Ambitions: Major Market Moves

• 5. Philadelphia Phillies: $291 million / $240 million. With considerable room for big signings, the Phillies could make major additions.
• 4. New York Yankees: $296 million / $260 million. Despite recent spending reluctance, the Yankees have significant potential for acquisitions.
• 1. New York Mets: $340 million / $279 million. The Mets lead with aggressive plans to improve a struggling roster.

Conclusion

The free agency landscape for 2026 looks varied across the league, with teams positioned differently based on past spending and current payroll flexibility. Keep an eye on the coming months as teams look to bolster their rosters ahead of the new season.