Introduction

As baseball offseason updates roll in, teams are gearing up for a new season filled with hope and anticipation. However, not every franchise will continue on an upward trajectory. While some teams are poised for improvement in 2026, others may experience a downturn, even if they remain competitive. In this article, we explore several Major League Baseball (MLB) teams that could see fewer wins than in 2025.

St. Louis Cardinals: A Rebuilding Phase

The St. Louis Cardinals had a disappointing 78-win season last year, and with new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom at the helm, the team appears set for further challenges ahead. Bloom has initiated a significant rebuild that has shaken the foundation of the current roster. The Cardinals have traded away key players like Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Brendon Donovan, signaling a shift in priorities as Bloom aims to bolster the farm system for future success.

One of the critical additions to the pitching rotation is Dustin May, who signed a one-year contract valued at $12.5 million. Yet, his track record raises concerns; after posting a 4.96 ERA last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox, relying on May as a top starter could spell trouble for the Cardinals. As they navigate a competitive NL Central, projections suggest a potential 90-plus loss season lurks around the corner.

Washington Nationals: Continuing Challenges

For the Washington Nationals, 2026 may spell even more woes, following a dismal 66-96 record in 2025. Although it seems challenging to perform worse than that, the team’s recent trade of pitcher MacKenzie Gore to the Texas Rangers indicates a long-term rebuilding strategy is in motion, but it may come with immediate consequences.

While the roster houses intriguing talents like James Wood and CJ Abrams, the overall outlook is bleak. Wood led the league with 221 strikeouts last season, yet his offensive potential may not offset the loss of a solid starter like Gore. The most notable addition for Washington has been right-hander Miles Mikolas, who arrives with a 4.98 ERA over the last three seasons. With these dynamics, experts anticipate the Nationals could be staring down a 100-loss season.

New York Yankees: A Tough Division

The New York Yankees managed to secure 94 wins last season, but playing in the ultra-competitive AL East will pose new challenges for the Bronx Bombers. As teams like the Toronto Blue Jays strengthened their rosters, the Yankees might find it hard to replicate last year’s success.

Injuries may be the Yankees' biggest foe, particularly in their starting rotation. With Gerrit Cole recovering from Tommy John surgery and Carlos Rodón facing elbow surgery complications, the pitching depth appears precarious. Adding to this concern, veteran slugger Giancarlo Stanton is grappling with chronic elbow pain, raising questions about his long-term capability. The Yankees could realistically remain contenders, but they might end up closer to 90 wins in 2026 as the competition intensifies.

Philadelphia Phillies: Facing Similar Struggles

Echoing the sentiments surrounding the Yankees, the Philadelphia Phillies showcase considerable talent but could struggle to match their previous season total of 96 wins. Despite possessing a strong rotation led by Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, questions linger over the health and performance of established pitchers like Zack Wheeler, who is returning from thoracic outlet decompression surgery.

Though their bullpen looks promising with Jhoan Duran and José Alvarado, concerns regarding aging stars Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner could dampen their offensive firepower. The Phillies potentially remain favorites for the NL East, but a drop to 92 wins seems probable as other divisional rivals improve.

Milwaukee Brewers: A Slight Decline?

The Milwaukee Brewers have been synonymous with competitiveness in recent years, yet their status as a 97-win franchise last season may not hold. With the trade of Freddy Peralta, who finished fifth in Cy Young voting last year, the Brewers might see a gradual decline in wins.

Health concerns also shadow key pitcher Brandon Woodruff, who has not seen extensive innings since 2023. Even if the Brewers continue to outmaneuver their competition, expectations for a drop in total wins are reasonable, with projections suggesting they could still be in contention while potentially recording around 96 victories.

Conclusion

The landscape of MLB is ever-changing, with teams constantly evolving through trades, injuries, and player development. While some franchises will likely see growth, others face uncertain paths filled with potential setbacks. Whether these teams can navigate the challenges ahead will shape the competitive balance and excitement of the 2026 season.