Introduction

As fantasy football drafts approach, making smart decisions in the early rounds is crucial for setting your team up for success. Home run picks are the goal, but be wary of players who may be poised for touchdown regression. In this article, we'll spotlight six key players to avoid at their current average draft positions (ADP) due to their potential drop in scoring production.

1. Saquon Barkley (ADP: 1.02)

After a standout 2024 season where Saquon Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards and led the league with 2,283 scrimmage yards, fantasy managers are hoping for an encore. However, the history of recent rushing champions reveals a trend of declining performance and injuries the following seasons. Past champions like Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey have encountered significant setbacks, making Barkley a risky first-round pick. Additionally, the Madden cover curse adds another layer of superstition to consider.

2. Puka Nacua (ADP: 1.09)

Last season, Puka Nacua emerged as a solid receiver, but concerns around quarterback Matthew Stafford's health could cap his potential. Stafford has been dealing with a back injury, creating uncertainty as the Rams may need to rely on Jimmy Garoppolo. Given Stafford's declining numbers and the recent addition of another wide receiver, Nacua may struggle to replicate his previous success.

3. Josh Jacobs (ADP: 2.03)

Despite a strong performance with 1,329 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in 2024, Josh Jacobs has not managed to string together back-to-back strong seasons. His past indicates that scoring streaks like his recent one are rarely repeated. Additionally, the Packers' offensive setup and competition for touches from other running backs mean Jacobs could see a downturn in both carries and touchdowns this season.

4. Ladd McConkey (ADP: 2.11)

Ladd McConkey made an impressive impact last season, but his target share is likely to diminish with the Chargers' recent draft moves and returning players. With the addition of Tre' Harris and the presence of Keenan Allen, the inflated target volume McConkey enjoyed last year may not be sustainable, putting a damper on his fantasy prospects.

5. James Cook (ADP: 3.09)

After tying for the league lead in rushing touchdowns in 2024 with 16, James Cook faces the classic situation of touchdown regression. With strong competitors like quarterback Josh Allen and other backs in the mix, Cook’s touchdowns will likely drop off in 2025. Fantasy managers should be cautious, as last season’s figures might not represent his true potential moving forward.

6. James Conner (ADP: 4.01)

James Conner peaked in 2024, accumulating career highs in both rushing and scrimmage yards. Yet, workload-sharing discussions with Trey Benson and potential contributions from quarterback Kyler Murray could hinder Conner's production. At 30 and with a history of injuries, his fantasy value is definitely in question for the upcoming season.

Conclusion

As you prepare for your fantasy football drafts, be mindful of these players who are at high risk for touchdown regression. Avoiding these potential pitfalls early on can significantly enhance your chances of building a successful fantasy team.