Blake Snells Free Agency Landscape for 2024-25: Potential Destinations and Market Value
Blake Snell faced an unexpected journey during the 2023 free agency period. After earning 2023 NL Cy Young honors, Snell was anticipated to attract a lucrative, long-term contract as one of the premier starting pitchers on the market. However, the process extended into March before he secured a two-year, $62 million agreement with the San Francisco Giants. The atypical offseason and restricted spring training appeared to affect his early performance, leading to only six starts in the first three months, characterized by injury struggles and a 9.51 ERA across 23.2 innings.
As July approached, Snell revitalized his season, reflecting a remarkable turnaround in his performance. In 14 starts over the final three months, he recorded a 5-0 record with a stellar 1.23 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and amassed 114 strikeouts over 80.1 innings, limiting opponents to an impressive .123 batting average. This resounding finish enabled Snell to forgo his player option for the 2025 season, reigniting his chances in the upcoming free agency period. Currently positioned as one of the top starting pitchers for the winter, speculation surrounds his potential landing spots. Blake Snell ranks at No. 4 among the Top 100 MLB free agents of the 2024-25 offseason according to Moneyline, following only Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Willy Adames.
In addition to Snell, other notable pitchers include Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and Sean Manaea, each of whom will likely seek substantial long-term deals, unless a shorter-term contract with a higher average annual value is preferable. The Los Angeles Angels recently inked Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million contract, marking a significant indicator of current free-agent pitching values. Snell vacated a $30 million salary for the 2025 season when opting out of his Giants deal, and projections suggest he could secure a comparable or superior figure in a new multi-year agreement. As a two-time Cy Young recipient approaching his 32nd birthday, comparisons can be drawn with Carlos Rodón, who signed a six-year, $162 million deal with the New York Yankees at a similar age after a resurgence in form. While a lengthy deal is uncertain for Snell, surpassing Rodón's $27 million AAV is plausible, with a potential four-year, $120 million contract aligning with Snell’s previous salary while enhancing his financial future.
The Texas Rangers, projected to feature a rotation of Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle, Cody Bradford, and Kumar Rocker, may look to bring in outside help after losing Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Michael Lorenzen from their previous lineup. They had shown interest in Snell during the trade deadline, indicating a genuine pursuit for his talents. The Atlanta Braves, facing similar pressures with their rotation, are anticipated to seek out additional help, especially since they need to compensate for the departures of Max Fried and Charlie Morton, who brought in a collective $35 million in 2023.
The New York Yankees remain in the conversation as a possible destination for Snell but face urgent needs elsewhere, including securing a deal with Juan Soto. The San Diego Padres are likely in need of pitching assistance as Joe Musgrove undergoes recovery from Tommy John surgery. Snell's past performance with the team and his Cy Young accolade could entice the Padres, who are working through a more straightforward offseason compared to last year.
The Baltimore Orioles are another team to watch. Should they be unable to retain ace Corbin Burnes, they will quickly seek a viable replacement. A fully healthy season from Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez is crucial for the team's ambitions, but securing a dominant ace is essential for making strides forward. The Toronto Blue Jays, having pursued Shohei Ohtani recently, have a solid starting rotation anchored by Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt, though they need to bolster their roster further to ensure potential contract extensions for players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Giants may not be entirely done with Snell despite his opting out. Renowned insider Jon Heyman hints that a reunion could be feasible, given Snell's affinity for the city and his previous success in San Francisco. The Dodgers' rotation currently leans heavily toward right-handers, which could change if Clayton Kershaw returns for another season. Even without Kershaw, acquiring a pitcher like Snell aligns well with the franchise's historical preferences, as they often target elite talents to enhance their pitching staff.
The New York Mets are expected to prioritize Juan Soto's contract situation, though they are simultaneously in the market for multiple starting pitchers after losing Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and José Quintana. Should they make significant acquisitions, Snell could fit their needs ideally, representing a potential ace for the current rotation. Finally, from a strategic standpoint, the Boston Red Sox might emerge as a leading candidate for Snell’s services. Despite improvements from young pitchers like Tanner Houck and a potentially returning Lucas Giolito, the Red Sox possess the financial flexibility to pursue Snell, who boasts impressive statistics at Fenway Park throughout his career. For Boston, securing a top-tier starter should be a focal point this offseason.