The AL East: A Division Like No Other

The American League East (AL East) has consistently proven to be one of the toughest divisions in Major League Baseball (MLB). Last season, AL East teams collectively achieved an average of 85 wins, exemplifying the competitive nature of the division, which boasted three playoff teams. As we approach the 2026 season, opinions on which team will emerge as the favorite are diverse. Despite various advanced metrics and projections, there remains no clear winner among the five teams in the division. Here, we will rank all five teams based on their 2025 performances, projections for 2026, and their chances of navigating the challenges of the AL East.

5. Tampa Bay Rays

2025 Record: 77-85 2026 Win Projections: Undetermined

Ceiling: The Rays possess a pitching-rich squad that could contend for a wild card, thanks largely to the effectiveness of Shane McClanahan, along with Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot. Their bullpen, which led the league in strikeouts during the second half of 2025, serves as a formidable asset.

Floor: The offense remains a significant area of concern, as the team may struggle to generate runs without key players like Brandon Lowe. Junior Caminero’s breakout year with 45 homers is a bright spot, but overall, the lineup lacks star power, raising chances for a non-competitive season.

AL East Survival Rating: 3/10 The Rays face an uphill battle and may not be poised to bounce back from a lackluster performance in the AL East last season.

4. Baltimore Orioles

2025 Record: 75-87 2026 Win Projections: Undetermined

Ceiling: The Orioles have the potential to become an offensive juggernaut, especially with acquisitions like Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward joining an already strong roster anchored by Gunnar Henderson. Their pitching staff also boasts Trevor Rogers, who had an impressive ERA in the 1.00s last year, and a healthy Kyle Bradish.

Floor: Concerns loom over the lineup’s depth, which could leave Baltimore exposed if injuries occur or if key players fail to perform. Their strategy of settling for less potent pitching options this offseason raises red flags about their readiness to compete.

AL East Survival Rating: 5/10 While promising, the Orioles may not have the internal stability needed, especially lacking top-tier pitching.

3. New York Yankees

2025 Record: 95-68 2026 Win Projections: Undetermined

Ceiling: The Yankees are equipped with a powerful lineup that dominated the league in both home runs and runs scored last year. If superstar Aaron Judge continues his MVP-caliber form, and if Gerrit Cole can return strong from Tommy John surgery, they could repeat as division contenders.

Floor: Age could be a critical factor, as key players like Judge, Cole, and Giancarlo Stanton are creeping into their mid-30s. The bullpen has also shown vulnerabilities, as evidenced by a 4.37 ERA and the departures of Devin Williams and Luke Weaver without replacements in sight.

AL East Survival Rating: 7/10 The Yankees posted a respectable record last year, but their aging roster coupled with other teams improving could prove detrimental.

2. Boston Red Sox

2025 Record: 89-73 2026 Win Projections: Undetermined

Ceiling: Boston’s commitment to pitching has transformed their approach. With Garrett Crochet leading the charge, complemented by additions such as Ranger Suárez and Sonny Gray, they can compete defensively while also maintaining offensive capabilities with players like Caleb Durbin.

Floor: Despite boasting strong pitching, a lack of power hitters could make winning low-scoring games a concern—a critical shortcoming in such a challenging division.

AL East Survival Rating: 7.5/10 The Red Sox stand on the cusp of contention yet face challenges in consistency and offensive output.

1. Toronto Blue Jays

2025 Record: 94-68 2026 Win Projections: Undetermined

Ceiling: Having come close to championship glory, the Blue Jays maintain a balanced lineup capable of both power and defense. The expected return of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and contributions from new additions mean they remain a well-rounded team.

Floor: Although the Blue Jays are favored, they could be in for a rough season if they experience the regressions that often haunt highly successful teams. Injury issues, notably with Shane Bieber, could leave them vulnerable in critical areas.

AL East Survival Rating: 8/10 With the best overall performance in 2025, the Blue Jays are poised to contend again but must navigate the unpredictability of the season ahead.

Conclusion

The AL East promises to provide exhilarating competition in 2026, with each team bringing unique strengths and challenges. While the Blue Jays and Red Sox may hold the upper hand on paper, the unpredictable nature of baseball could permit for surprises as the season unfolds. As teams gear up for another year, the race for the top begins—who will rise to the occasion in this storied division?