Introduction

As the MLB offseason approaches, teams are gearing up for the annual free-agent frenzy. On November 17, B/R will unveil its top 25 free agents, complete with contract and team predictions. While teams may remain optimistic about their free-agent prospects, the reality is that some players may prove to be costly investments. This article explores potential boom-or-bust candidates, including those making this year's countdown and others that narrowly missed the cut.

Munetaka Murakami: Power Hitter with Potential Risks

Munetaka Murakami, a two-time Central League MVP posted by the Yakult Swallows, presents a fascinating case. At just 25, Murakami has already hit 246 home runs and boasts a .951 OPS over eight seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB). His recent performance includes 22 home runs in just 56 games this season. However, his 2025 season raised concerns, as he struck out 64 times in 187 at-bats and struggled against high velocity. While he could be a 40-home run hitter in MLB, his success hinges on his ability to adapt and improve his batting average.

Brandon Woodruff: Injury Prone but Elite When Healthy

Brandon Woodruff's situation remains uncertain as he considers a one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer from the Brewers. Though he's an All-Star caliber pitcher, his availability is in question due to a history of injuries; he missed the entire 2024 season and ended 2025 early due to a right lat strain. If a team decides to sign him long-term, they must weigh the risk of his injury history against his proven talent.

Trent Grisham: A Risky Free-Agent Choice

Following a breakout season with 34 home runs and an .811 OPS, Trent Grisham must capitalize on his performance in free agency. Previously criticized for a poor 2024 season, Grisham's defensive performances also took a downturn in 2025. While his offensive potential may attract attention, concerns over his defensive metrics could affect his long-term value.

Gleyber Torres: A Hit-or-Miss Free-Agent Opportunity

Gleyber Torres, given a qualifying offer by the Detroit Tigers, faces an uncertain path. Once an All-Star, Torres showed flashes of brilliance but struggled after the All-Star break this past season. His performance has fluctuated, making a long-term investment risky, particularly after undergoing sports hernia surgery.

Lucas Giolito: A Cautious Signing

Lucas Giolito's career has taken significant turns in recent seasons, marked by an underwhelming 2023 and a missed 2024. However, he rebounded in 2025 with a solid performance for the Red Sox. Despite his talent, teams may hesitate to offer Giolito a multi-year deal due to the uncertainty surrounding his elbow health.

J.T. Realmuto: Declining Catcher with Value

As one of the best catchers of his era, J.T. Realmuto’s return to free agency draws considerable attention. His reputation for game preparation makes him valuable, but his performance metrics have declined in recent years. With his age and slipping defensive numbers, potential suitors must decide if his experience outweighs the risks.

Max Scherzer: Hall of Fame Legacy with Risks

Max Scherzer's postseason success with the Blue Jays likely won’t mitigate concerns over his declining regular-season performance. As he approaches 42, teams must weigh the potential for a memorable career against the likelihood of continued struggles. His 5.19 ERA in 2025 and limited innings raise red flags for prospective teams.

Conclusion

The upcoming free-agent market presents both opportunities and risks for MLB teams. With many players showcasing potential but also carrying significant uncertainties, teams must navigate this offseason wisely to build successful squads.