Prepping for Fantasy Football: Analyzing Player Values Ahead of Draft Season

As Memorial Day weekend approaches, a variety of summer traditions begin to take form across the United States. While many engage in outdoor activities like grilling and swimming, for fantasy football enthusiasts, this season marks the impending arrival of draft preparations. Although draft season has yet to officially commence, it is essential for fantasy managers to initiate their player research and evaluations early to set themselves up for success in the competitive landscape of fantasy football.
Among the top-tier quarterbacks consistently valued in fantasy leagues, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills often emerges as a first-round draft choice. Current average draft position (ADP) data from Fantasy Pros reveals that Allen is being selected in the late second round, specifically as the 21st overall pick. Notable analysts, including Kendall Valenzuela from Fantasy Life, affirm Allen’s place at the top of this elite group. Allen's history as a top-three quarterback in fantasy points per game over the last five seasons supports this valuation. Furthermore, Valenzuela highlights a noticeable reduction in Allen's turnovers, citing a career-low five interceptions in the preceding season, alongside impressive passing statistics, including 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns. His dual-threat capability, exemplified by 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, further elevates his desirability among fantasy managers.
However, the decision to draft Allen so early presents an inherent risk. While the allure of selecting a top quarterback may seem tantalizing, doing so diminishes the ability to strengthen other critical positions. Additional concerns surrounding Allen involve a lack of depth in the Bills' receiving core, which compelled him to rely heavily on rushing touchdowns for fantasy points. Despite accomplishing impressive rushing stats, Allen’s overall fantasy points positioning among quarterbacks leaves room for caution regarding early investment in him.
On the contrary, Justin Fields of the New York Jets is drawing attention as a potential sleeper after enduring challenges throughout his previous seasons in the NFL, including being benched by the Pittsburgh Steelers. With Fields now solidifying his role as the Jets' starting quarterback, there is optimism regarding his impact in 2025. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams praised Fields’ speed and potential, pointing to his dual-threat capabilities as a noteworthy asset. Fields’ ADP currently sits at QB15, making him an appealing option for fantasy managers, who may benefit from his ability to gain yards on the ground. In his 2022 season with the Chicago Bears, Fields became the third quarterback to surpass 1,000 rushing yards in a single season, finishing sixth in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks during that period. Even considering less favorable stats from a brief stint with the Steelers last season, Fields demonstrated the potential for significant fantasy value.
As the offseason progresses, another player generating significant hype is Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles. With an ADP reflecting a top-three pick, Barkley’s previous season showcased his exceptional talent, as he became one of the few running backs to exceed 2,000 rushing yards. His 22.0 PPR points per game led all running backs. However, concerns about his workload, particularly considering he touched the ball 482 times last season across all games, have prompted analysts to question the sustainability of such heavy usage. Pat Fitzmaurice of Fantasy Pros cautions that Barkley’s age and recent injury history could result in diminishing returns in 2025 if history repeats itself for running backs who have endured comparable workloads.
Furthermore, despite the impressive performance from Barkley, he must contend with the historical precedence of regression following a 2,000-yard season, a phenomenon that has impacted all prior backs in this category. Fantasy managers may find themselves torn between the desire to see Barkley continue his successes or confronting the possible repercussions of increased wear and tear on his body.
Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift of the Chicago Bears also enters the discussion as an undervalued asset among running backs. Despite a lackluster performance last year, where Swift averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry, analysts like Ted Chymz from Fantasy Pros argue that the negative sentiment surrounding Swift has been overstated. Acknowledging his skill set and previous fantasy productivity, Swift is projected to be the lead back in a revamped Chicago offense, which could yield a favorable outcome in terms of touches and overall performance. The Bears have made significant investments in their offensive line, and the absence of new high-profile additions to the backfield solidifies Swift's position as a potential value pick.
Looking ahead, the 2025 rookie class boasts standout players, with Ashton Jeanty emerging as a popular choice following an exemplary season at Boise State. Jeanty, picked sixth overall in the 2025 draft, carries an ADP that places him among the top ten running backs. Raiders edge-rusher Maxx Crosby has voiced his admiration for Jeanty, emphasizing the player's work ethic and determination. However, while capturing enthusiasm, caution is warranted as Jeanty faces a significant transition in competition level, along with the challenge of navigating a less-than-stellar offensive line. Analysts caution against viewing Jeanty as a surefire star, as such expectations may be overly ambitious given the circumstances.
In previous drafts, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. created excitement as he entered the NFL with much anticipation, yet his rookie season did not mirror the hype. His performance yielded 62 receptions for 885 yards—a noteworthy achievement that, nonetheless, placed him outside the top 30 receivers in PPR points. Analysts point to his inefficiencies with air yards and target share as contributing factors to his ranking. However, many believe that Harrison possesses the potential for improvement in 2025, especially given his offseason commitment to enhancing his chemistry with quarterback Kyler Murray. Harrison's draft position provides an opportunity for managers to capitalize on his potential upside as a solid contributor in the league.
Conversely, Tyreek Hill, once hailed as the premier receiver in the NFL, has found himself in a crucial stage of his career after an underwhelming recent season. Dolphins wide receivers coach Robert Prince praised Hill's commitment this offseason yet acknowledged the concerns regarding Hill’s advanced age and declining metrics over the last few years. Serious questions linger about Hill’s potential to reclaim his prior elite status, especially if the Dolphins' passing game remains stymied by defensive schemes aimed at minimizing his effectiveness.
Lastly, Chris Olave of the New Orleans Saints, previously seen as a top-12 wide receiver, has seen his ADP dip considerably due to injury concerns. Following multiple concussions, Saints head coach Kellen Moore expressed high expectations for Olave, underscoring his versatility and talent. If Olave can navigate the injury troubles that have plagued him, he represents a valuable asset in fantasy drafts, possessing the potential for a significant target share, given the current dynamics of the Saints' receiving corps.
In the tight end landscape, Travis Kelce's prior domination is now overshadowed by concerns stemming from his age and performance drop in the previous season. Though regarded as a top tight end, analysts are cautious about taking Kelce in the early rounds, suggesting that his current ADP may not justify the potential decline in output. Recent seasons have revealed subtle signs of regression, leading many to doubt whether Kelce can recapture his previous production levels in his age-36 season.
In contrast, Kyle Pitts of the Atlanta Falcons, despite facing scrutiny over his production since an impressive rookie year, may offer substantial value moving forward. Atlanta's offensive coordinator indicates optimism about Pitts’ growth in his second year within the system. Improvements to quarterback play and overall offensive strategies may contribute to a resurgence for Pitts as a fantasy tight end. Managers willing to embrace the risk may find that Pitts presents an appealing opportunity at a discount price.








