From 2013 to 2022, Max Scherzer established himself as one of the premier pitchers in Major League Baseball, securing three Cy Young Awards and consistently showcasing exceptional performance metrics. Over that decade, he recorded a 2.78 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and posted an impressive 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings, a feat most pitchers would consider remarkable for a fraction of that length, not spanning ten years. However, the passage of time inevitably impacts all athletes, and Scherzer has not been immune to injuries that had largely spared him during his prolific career.
In recent seasons, Scherzer's statistics reflect a decline, as he posted a 4.29 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) over the last two years, considerably higher than the sub-3.50 FIP he maintained throughout 11 consecutive seasons. In those two years, he managed to make only 36 starts out of a possible 66 and experienced a spike in home runs allowed, a troubling pattern when compared to the earlier years of his career. In his limited nine starts in 2024, his strikeout rate dropped to an unusual 8.3 K/9, influenced by a fastball velocity that has diminished to an average of 92.5 mph—down from 93.7 mph in 2023 and consistently above 94 mph in each year from 2016 to 2022. Despite these challenges, Scherzer retains the potential to be an effective No. 2 or No. 3 starter as he approaches his 41st birthday in July 2025.
As free agency approaches, the question arises: what is Scherzer's market value? It appears probable that he will seek a one-year contract, potentially with a player option contingent upon his ability to reach a certain number of starts, akin to the agreement Jordan Montgomery secured with the Diamondbacks last spring. A fully guaranteed multi-year deal seems unlikely given the trajectory of his recent performances, contrasting with pitchers like Justin Verlander, who signed a two-year, $86.6 million deal at nearly 40 years old following a Cy Young-winning season with exceptional statistics. In terms of projected market value, Spotrac estimates Scherzer at $15.2 million, a significant reduction from the $43.3 million he received in his previous three seasons. This valuation might discourage teams operating on a tighter budget, especially since 16 out of 30 teams had Opening Day payrolls of $143 million or less in the most recent season. Teams within this spending bracket might hesitate to allocate over 10 percent of their payroll to a veteran pitcher like Scherzer unless he is perceived as a vital component of a championship roster.
Several potential landing spots for Scherzer can be identified, starting with the Los Angeles Dodgers. For a franchise accustomed to significant payrolls, an investment of $15 million in a veteran pitcher represents a manageable expense. The Dodgers already possess a robust pitching staff, including Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin, yet a veteran presence like Scherzer could enhance their postseason aspirations. However, some speculation surrounds whether the team would prefer to prioritize Clayton Kershaw's availability, given their familiarity with his health history.
The Atlanta Braves also enter the conversation. Initially perceived as unlikely to pursue yet another high-risk pitcher, recent payroll adjustments, including declining the club option for Travis d'Arnaud and moving Jorge Soler for Griffin Canning, may create space for Scherzer on their roster. However, should the Braves decide to invest in an aging pitcher, they might prefer to retain Charlie Morton, a familiar name in their rotation.
The Philadelphia Phillies, led by a desire to capitalize on their competitive window, may view Scherzer as an intriguing option despite already holding a significant payroll. They would, however, need to consider offloading Taijuan Walker, who is due $18 million in the next two seasons, to facilitate the signing. A rotation featuring Scherzer alongside All-Star Ranger Suárez could create a formidable pitching staff.
Similarly, the Arizona Diamondbacks would have to navigate financial constraints in order to re-sign Scherzer, as they currently carry Jordan Montgomery's $22.5 million salary. The likelihood of a reunion hinges on their ability to maneuver around their current payroll commitments, making them a suitable option pending certain transactions.
The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to bolster their rotation as well. With recent decisions to decline club options on veteran pitchers Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, they may be seeking a seasoned arm in Scherzer to add stability to their roster. The market for older pitchers is narrow, suggesting that signing Scherzer could align with their strategies moving forward.
The Texas Rangers face a critical decision regarding their rotation before considering another partnership with Scherzer. With health concerns lingering over their existing roster, the Rangers must weigh the value of overhauling their pitching staff while also addressing the need for bullpen support. Integrating Scherzer as part of a deeper rotation may enable the team to explore innovative pitching strategies, potentially alleviating pressure on their frontline starters.
The New York Mets could present an opportunity for Scherzer to return, especially considering his successful tenure with the team prior to his transition to the Rangers. The Mets are in pursuit of a strong pitching staff following the departures of Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and José Quintana, suggesting Scherzer may be an appealing option as they aim to reclaim their position in the competitive National League East.
The Baltimore Orioles are expected to make a significant splash in free agency this winter. While speculation surrounds the possibility of targeting top-tier pitchers, there remains the opportunity to secure a low-cost, veteran presence in Scherzer to help navigate a rebuilding phase and provide mentorship to younger pitchers within their rotation.
Lastly, the San Francisco Giants may find themselves in the running for acquiring Scherzer, considering his experience may bolster their rotation's overall effectiveness. Competing with other teams for his services could prove beneficial as they aim to solidify their pitching staff for the upcoming season. The Giants are said to be exploring several options, including high-profile hitters, which might complicate efforts to land Scherzer.
Meanwhile, a return to the Detroit Tigers—where Scherzer achieved significant success early in his career—might also be on the horizon. With the Tigers seeking rotation assistance post their playoff effort, they could target Scherzer either as a monolithic signing or in concert with another high-profile acquisition. His presence could provide a revitalizing narrative akin to that of players returning to former teams for a farewell season.
