The upcoming 2024-25 MLB offseason is shaping up to be promising for teams seeking starting pitching. Despite the challenges faced during the previous season, including widespread breakdowns among pitchers, the free-agent market presents an array of options for teams in need of reinforcements. To navigate this market, players will be categorized into seven brackets that are self-explanatory, followed by dedicated sections for the top five available pitchers, where predictions regarding their next teams and potential contract values will be discussed.
Left-handed pitcher Shinnosuke Ogasawara, age 27, had a successful season in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) with a 3.12 ERA over 24 games. However, any MLB team that signs him will be required to pay a posting fee to the Chunichi Dragons, which could be costly. Notably, Ogasawara's strikeout rate fell to 13.6% in 2024, ranking last among MLB pitchers. A possible destination is the Chicago White Sox, with a predicted contract of two years and $10 million.
Tomoyuki Sugano, 35, pursued through free agency, had a standout year in NPB, earning a 1.67 ERA with the Yomiuri Giants. His experience could be appealing to teams, despite concerns about his age impacting contract offers. Sugano showcases excellent command with a diverse pitching arsenal and is anticipated to sign with the San Francisco Giants for one year at approximately $13 million.
Michael Soroka, 27, experienced a challenging trajectory in the majors but found success this year in a multi-inning relief role for the White Sox. With a remarkable 2.75 ERA and a strikeout rate of 39%, teams may see him as a valuable asset. The Cleveland Guardians might benefit from Soroka's youth and recent performance, predicting a two-year contract worth $12 million.
Spencer Turnbull, age 32, has battled injuries since his no-hitter in May 2021 but began to regain form this past season. After a promising start with a 1.67 ERA in April, he may catch the attention of teams looking for rotation depth. The Milwaukee Brewers could sign Turnbull for one year at $6 million.
Trevor Williams, also 32, has shown the potential to be a reliable innings eater, having previously made 30 starts in 2023. He enjoyed a strong breakout season and utilized a sweeper pitch effectively, making him an appealing option for the Washington Nationals, projected for one year at $8 million.
Kyle Gibson, 37, leads the league in innings pitched over the last 11 seasons, despite a career ERA of 4.24. Gibson's primary strength lies in his ability to induce ground balls, making him fit for teams with solid infield defenses. A one-year deal with the Texas Rangers for $10 million is expected.
Michael Lorenzen, age 32, had a productive season, showcasing versatility as both a starter and reliever. With a stable pitch selection, his ability to keep hitters off balance may attract interest from teams like the Oakland Athletics, who could sign him for an estimated $6 million over one year.
Lance Lynn, 37, has faced injury issues, impacting his workload, yet he continues to deliver steady performances when on the mound. His fastball retains effectiveness despite a decline in velocity, making him a potential acquisition for the Baltimore Orioles at $8 million for one year.
Martín Pérez, 33, who was an All-Star in 2022, remains a viable option with significant innings logged in the last two seasons. His propensity for generating ground balls makes him a good fit for teams with strong infield defenses, likely signing a one-year deal worth $6 million with the Colorado Rockies.
Colin Rea, age 34, is coming off a solid season where he ranked second for the Milwaukee Brewers in innings pitched. While he struggled with the long ball, he could find a home with a team that has a favorable environment, such as the Detroit Tigers, projected for a one-year contract worth $8 million.
Clayton Kershaw, 36, opted out of his contract, but expressed his desire to continue playing. Following shoulder surgery, he is projected to secure a one-year deal worth $12 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he may contribute around 100 innings at an approximate 2.00 ERA.
Charlie Morton, age 41, intends to return for the 2025 season after ongoing speculation about retirement. With a strong postseason presence and room in the Atlanta Braves' rotation, a one-year contract worth $15 million is anticipated.
Shane Bieber, 29, faces a slower recovery timeline due to Tommy John surgery, but teams may view signing him as a valuable investment. He may return mid-2025, potentially on a one-year, $14 million deal with the Cleveland Guardians.
Matthew Boyd, 33, demonstrated effectiveness as a fill-in starter for the Guardians and has the opportunity for future contracts. Given his strong late-season performance, he could attract interest from the Los Angeles Angels for two years at a combined $20 million.
Alex Cobb, aged 37, made a brief impact after joining the Guardians from the Giants. Should he maintain good health, a one-year deal worth around $7 million with the Minnesota Twins is projected.
Max Scherzer, now 40, had a tough season with injuries limiting his availability. Still, his competitive spirit remains intact as he prepares for the upcoming season, with a strong possibility of signing a one-year contract valued at $15 million with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Justin Verlander, 41, faced struggles in 2024 after starting the season on the injured list. Nonetheless, his determination to continue playing offers teams a chance to see if he can regain form, likely signing with the New York Yankees for $15 million.
Walker Buehler, 30, rebounded from a difficult season by showcasing impressive performances during the playoffs. While his value may have fluctuated, a three-year, $30 million contract with the Chicago Cubs can be anticipated.
Andrew Heaney, 33, enjoyed a mixed season with the Texas Rangers, pulling together valuable innings, especially in the postseason. A two-year contract worth $22 million could see him remain with Texas.
Nick Martinez, age 34, may choose to accept a qualifying offer from the Cincinnati Reds. Known for his strong command, Martinez's performance showed significant upside, keeping teams interested.
Frankie Montas, 31, struggled with injuries and performance over the past year, but his improvements after joining the Brewers suggest there may be a team willing to take a chance on him, potentially with the Washington Nationals for $20 million over two years.
Nick Pivetta, age 31, is expected to accept the qualifying offer from the Boston Red Sox, who may seek to capitalize on the depth he provides in the rotation.
Nathan Eovaldi, 34, has opted out of his contract after demonstrating solid performance, and the Texas Rangers may want to keep him, predicting a two-year, $40 million deal.
Yusei Kikuchi, 33, rebounded dramatically after a tough start in Toronto, finishing with a 4.05 ERA and becoming a sought-after pitcher. A three-year deal with the New York Mets for approximately $45 million could be in the works.
Sean Manaea, age 32, had a disappointing start of the season but became one of the top pitchers down the stretch, positioning himself for offers, including a three-year, $51 million contract with the New York Mets.
José Quintana, 35, has emerged as a dependable starter with solid groundball rates, easing doubts from previous seasons. His experience makes him suitable for a two-year, $24 million contract with the San Francisco Giants.
Luis Severino, 30, had a strong season that came after several injury-plagued years, and teams may see promise in his performance, making the Baltimore Orioles a fitting destination for a three-year deal worth $48 million.
Jack Flaherty, at age 29, is powered by a strong return to form after several seasons. With his impressive strikeout to walk ratio, teams will vie for a chance to sign him. A potential landing spot includes the Los Angeles Angels for four years at $88 million.
The young talent Roki Sasaki, 23, is set to enter the MLB through a bidding process. His exceptional pitching repertoire consists of a 100 mph fastball and remarkable breaking pitches. Sasaki is expected to be highly sought after, with the Los Angeles Dodgers as the leading candidate for a modest signing bonus.
Max Fried, 30, remains a top-target pitcher with consistent performance metrics, and while he has two All-Star selections to his name, he is anticipated to land a significant six-year contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, projected to be around $160 million.
Blake Snell, age 31, concluded a tumultuous season on a high note, leading to increased interest from various teams. After a strong finish, his availability may entice teams such as the Boston Red Sox, who could be scouting for an ace, predicting a four-year, $140 million deal.
Corbin Burnes, 30, retains an impressive track record since returning to the starting rotation, indicating his desirability to teams this offseason. Considering his performance, he is likely to secure an advantageous deal with the New York Mets, expected to be a seven-year contract worth $210 million.
