Evaluating MLB's Most Questionable Free Agency Contracts: Overpaying for Potential?

Introduction
The start of the 2025 MLB free agency has sparked debate regarding the value of several high-profile contracts. With massive deals signed by players like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, some contracts are raising eyebrows for their costs. Below, we delve into the six deals that may be viewed as overpays this offseason.
1. One-Year, $22.025 Million Qualifying Offer to Brandon Woodruff
As the Brewers struggle with financial constraints, committing over $22 million to a player like Woodruff—who has faced significant injuries in recent seasons—has raised questions. Despite a solid 3.20 ERA in 2025, his inability to stay healthy, having only pitched in 12 games, leaves Milwaukee wondering if this deal is a significant risk.
2. Two Years, $40 Million for Merrill Kelly
The Diamondbacks, in desperate need of pitching, opted to sign 37-year-old Merrill Kelly for two more seasons at $20 million each. While Kelly posted a respectable 3.22 ERA last season, his performance declined after being traded to the Rangers, and concerns linger about his effectiveness moving forward into his late 30s.
3. Three Years, $45 Million for Luis Suarez
Suarez continues to show promise as an All-Star closer, yet joining the Braves as their setup man raises eyebrows regarding his contract. With several other strong relievers on the team, the question is whether a 35-year-old reliever warrants a three-year deal when younger alternatives are available.
4. Two Years, $40 Million for Jorge Polanco
Polanco enjoyed a revival in 2025, posting solid stats, but considering his previous struggles and injury history, the Mets’ decision to sign him for two years at $20 million each is puzzling. Managing a fragile lineup like the Mets’ while paying that much for a player who may not fit perfectly seems like a gamble.
5. One-Year, $22.025 Million Qualifying Offer to Gleyber Torres
Torres accepted a one-year deal after an inconsistent performance marred by injury. While it showcases his All-Star potential, the price tag attached to a player who has not reached the offensive promise expected thereby complicating matters for the Tigers trying to strengthen their roster.
6. One Year, $20 Million for Ha-Seong Kim
Having opted out of a guaranteed $16 million, Kim's new one-year contract with the Braves raises eyebrows regarding its justification given his recent injury woes. Despite defensive versatility, his offensive performance has yet to cement his value at this price point, leaving fans wondering if there was a better option available.
Conclusion
As MLB teams look to enhance their rosters through free agency, the balance of potential and performance will always be a fine line. While the contracts of Schwarber and Alonso stand tall in value, several others appear to tread a perilous path, leaving fans and analysts alike to predict what the 2026 season might hold.
