The New York Rangers forward Alexis Lafreniere recently signed a significant contract extension, reigniting the ongoing debate regarding whether he has lived up to the expectations of being the first overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft. This discussion surfaces for many first overall selections who do not fit the mold of a 'generational' player, akin to the likes of Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid. It highlights the complexity of evaluating a player's worth following the draft, as several unpredictable factors can influence their development, such as injuries, coaching decisions, and the broader context within which they play.
One of the most recent picks, Connor Bedard, was an expected first overall selection in 2023, as the Chicago Blackhawks secured a franchise center to succeed the departing Jonathan Toews. Bedard quickly demonstrated his NHL-caliber talent, winning the Calder Trophy award for the best rookie despite facing a broken jaw during the season. Finishing his first year with 61 points, expectations are high that his point total will continue to rise as his career progresses.
Juraj Slafkovsky is regarded as a solid player who benefited from the fluctuating public perception of Shane Wright during their draft year. The Montreal Canadiens opted for Slafkovsky, emphasizing his size and skillset. While last season he secured 50 points across 82 games, his current trajectory indicates a growth in his offensive contribution as he started the season with 7 points in 8 games. Improvement in his skating could elevate his overall game significantly.
The pick of Owen Power first overall in 2021 generates a mixed evaluation, primarily due to the performances of Matty Beniers, who is considered by many to be exceptionally talented. While Beniers’ success has been palpable, it is acknowledged that Power would not have fallen lower than second in a redraft scenario. The depth of quality available in the 2021 draft adds to the contextual evaluation of this choice.
Lafreniere’s entry into the NHL was marked by heightened expectations and eventual struggles. After a difficult start—compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on his draft year and a lackluster inaugural season—discussions regarding his potential as a 'bust' circulated. However, positive feedback from teammates regarding his work ethic bore fruit last season when he posted 57 points, leading to a lucrative 7-year contract extension worth an average annual value of $7.45 million. Hindsight suggests alternatives, such as Ottawa Senators forward Tim Stützle or Detroit Red Wings forward Lucas Raymond, may have been preferable selections in retrospect.
Jack Hughes’ selection must be recognized as an unambiguous success. His reputation as an elite talent was established upon his arrival, contributing immeasurably to the New Jersey Devils’ ambitions for future success. Hughes’ ability to elevate his teammates' performances has been a focal point since his drafting, underscoring his value as a franchise player.
Rasmus Dahlin is acknowledged as a strong player, yet his draft year also featured notable contemporaries like Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk, and Quinn Hughes. Though Dahlin has demonstrated talent, some analysts argue that Hughes deserves recognition as the top pick of the 2018 draft due to his exceptional capabilities. While Dahlin is far from a disappointment, Hughes’ accolades, including the Norris Trophy, augment the discussion of their respective draft years.
The 2017 draft's first overall pick, Nico Hischier, remains paramount as the standout talent, with others like Nolan Patrick facing challenges due to health issues and Nick Suzuki progressively closing the gap. Hischier’s strategic intelligence on the ice defines his play, allowing him to consistently make astute decisions under pressure.
A comparison between Auston Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk reveals complexity in evaluating their respective impacts. While Tkachuk's leadership and talent have drawn commendations, Matthews’ scoring output is exceptional, evidenced by his prolific goal-scoring pace relative to even historic figures like Alexander Ovechkin. The landscape of their careers will continue to evolve, with Matthews’ legacy secure regardless of championship outcomes in Toronto.
Connor McDavid’s designation as the best player since Crosby is unequivocal, characterized by his generational talent and unmatched dynamism on the ice. Despite the Edmonton Oilers’ historical struggles, McDavid’s individual brilliance shines through, warranting top marks for his selection. His trajectory suggests a future filled with potential Cup victories, affirming the decision to draft him first overall as an unequivocal triumph.
