As Memorial Day weekend approaches, signaling the unofficial start of summer across the United States, various activities such as barbecuing and swimming take center stage. For fantasy football enthusiasts, this period marks the onset of draft season. Although major leagues, such as the Scott Fish Bowl, will begin shortly, now is the time for managers to start researching and evaluating players to enhance their chances of success in the upcoming season. In the analysis that follows, consensus opinions and divergent views will be considered, often revealing potential values in the fantasy football landscape.

Quarterback Josh Allen consistently ranks among the first quarterbacks drafted in fantasy leagues. Early Average Draft Position (ADP) data indicates that Allen is being selected late in Round 2, positioned as the 21st overall pick. As noted by analyst Kendall Valenzuela from Fantasy Life, Allen's consistent performance solidifies his standing. Over the past five seasons, Allen has finished as a top-three quarterback in fantasy points per game, and in 2024, he demonstrated significant improvement by registering only five interceptions, a career low. He amassed 3,731 passing yards and 28 touchdowns, despite his team's receiving corps ranking 27th in average Open Score. Additionally, Allen is recognized as a dual-threat quarterback, contributing 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns.

Despite his impressive track record, drafting Allen at the conclusion of Round 2 must be approached with caution. Selecting a quarterback early can often detract from other critical positions such as wide receiver or running back, ultimately disadvantaging the overall strength of a fantasy roster. Last season, Allen's passing yards were his lowest since 2019, raising concerns about his reliance on rushing touchdowns for fantasy points. Although he was amongst the top quarterbacks, it may be prudent for managers to consider waiting to draft a quarterback.

Meanwhile, Justin Fields embarks on a pivotal season with the New York Jets, marking his third team in as many years. After a tumultuous career, including a period of being benched, Fields has garnered positive feedback from teammates like defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, who recognizes Fields’ unique capabilities as a dual-threat quarterback. Fields’ early ADP of QB15 is appealing, particularly given his history. In 2022 with the Chicago Bears, Fields became one of the few quarterbacks to surpass 1,000 rushing yards in a season, ranking sixth in fantasy points per game.

In terms of production, Fields has shown promise, averaging 50.2 rushing yards per game throughout his career. Moreover, during his six-game stint with the Steelers last season, he managed to average 18.9 fantasy points per game, reflecting his potential value for fantasy managers this year. By contrast, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is attracting attention this draft season with an ADP placing him as the third overall pick, following his milestone achievement of over 2,000 rushing yards last year.

However, analysts caution fantasy managers about Barkley's workload and age as factors that could lead to regression. Reports indicate that Barkley touched the ball 482 times last season, a significant increase compared to his previous single-season high. The 'Curse of 370' is a phenomenon that has historically impacted running backs who exceed that threshold in touches, highlighting the potential for a notable decline the following season. Furthermore, at 28 years old and with a history of injuries, Barkley's durability and performance should be approached with careful consideration.

Despite his impressive statistics, the risks associated with Barkley cannot be overlooked, as history suggests a majority of running backs follow a concerning trend after heavy workloads and exceptional seasons. Another intriguing prospect is D’Andre Swift of the Chicago Bears, who suffered through a lackluster performance last year, averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. Despite these struggles, analyst Ted Chymz highlighted Swift's potential as an undervalued asset in the fantasy market. Swift is still a capable three-down back and is expected to be the lead back in an improved Chicago offense, warranting renewed optimism.

The reality is that fantasy managers often overlook players with established upside in favor of more high-profile options, leading to undervaluation of players like Swift. With the Bears addressing their offensive line needs, Swift may emerge as a key contributor. Among the rookie class, Ashton Jeanty has garnered significant attention, entering the year with an early ADP of eighth overall and fourth among running backs, following a record-setting season at Boise State.

Yet, despite the hype surrounding Jeanty, analysts urge caution regarding his early selection. The substantial workload he experienced in college—approaching 400 total touches—coupled with the inevitable jump in competition, adds layers of difficulty for the rookie. Furthermore, Jeanty will have to navigate a challenging offensive line situation, making expectations for top-tier fantasy production an ambitious goal for his inaugural season.

Last season, Marvin Harrison Jr. was another player generating significant rookie hype, but his first-season statistics fell short of expectations despite solid production. An analysis revealed patterns of limited target share and inconsistency, raising questions about his potential for a sophomore surge. Fortunately, positive developments during the offseason, including increased practice time with quarterback Kyler Murray, could bolster his chances for improvement this coming year.

Conversely, Chris Olave of the New Orleans Saints faces significant hurdles following setbacks due to concussions, risking his long-term availability. Olave must contend with an uncertain quarterback situation, yet he remains a player with high upside due to his ability to draw target share. If he can maintain his health, 2025 may see him returning to top-tier receiver status.

Lastly, Travis Kelce, a long-time elite tight end, is facing the realities of age as he enters his 36th season. After recording his lowest statistics since his rookie campaign, analysts suggest that fantasy managers should re-evaluate their expectations for Kelce in light of his historical performance. His average draft position as TE6 reflects a potential overvaluation, as the tight end’s production trajectory may not align with what managers hope to see this upcoming season. On the other hand, Kyle Pitts, once heralded as a potential league star, is now viewed with skepticism due to a decline in production. However, reports suggest that Pitts may have an opportunity to improve this season with a better understanding of the offense, supported by improvements across the team's quarterback play.

In conclusion, as the fantasy football draft season advances, it is essential for managers to evaluate players' values carefully, taking into account both established patterns and emerging trends that will likely influence their decisions.