The initial weeks of the NHL season often yield unexpected outcomes. Teams anticipated to struggle may secure a few wins, while Stanley Cup contenders might experience a sluggish start. Additionally, individual players can produce surprising stat lines that elevate expectations prematurely. This analysis will focus on five players who have experienced surprisingly strong starts, which could lead to inflated perceptions as the season progresses. However, this does not suggest that these players are ineffective or will not have solid seasons; rather, it indicates that their current levels of production may not be sustainable throughout the year.
Ivan Barbashev has made a significant impact for the Vegas Golden Knights since joining the team in February 2023, contributing to their Stanley Cup victory. At 28 years old, Barbashev is undeniably a talented player, but his current production levels may be higher than his historical performance suggests. In the first nine games of the 2023-24 season, he has already tallied seven goals and five assists for a total of 12 points, showcasing a scoring rate that has surpassed his established norms. The primary factor behind Barbashev's impressive early numbers is his remarkable ability to convert shots, with over 36 percent finding the back of the net. Such a figure is not only unsustainable but also unrealistic, especially for a player with a career shooting percentage closer to 17 percent. In the NHL, scoring and production often fluctuate, with players experiencing hot and cold streaks. When these trends manifest at the start of the season, they become more noticeable, particularly for players who do not typically perform at such elevated levels.
Jonathan Huberdeau's tenure in Calgary has not unfolded as anticipated since his arrival in July 2022. After enjoying a successful stretch in Florida, where he consistently ranked among the league’s top offensive players, Huberdeau's offensive output diminished significantly in Calgary, dropping from a 100-point tally to merely 50 points last season. This decline has led to concerns regarding his contract, which many now consider one of the least favorable in the NHL. For Flames fans, the sight of Huberdeau accumulating seven points in his first eight games may ignite hope for a resurgence. However, it is crucial to maintain perspective. The 31-year-old's production has largely stemmed from one standout performance, where he recorded four points against the Philadelphia Flyers, with only three points across the remaining six games. To compound matters, Huberdeau has managed just five shots on goal in his last six outings. Even if his contract were significantly lower, his current level of production would still pose challenges given the Flames' salary-cap situation, making it unlikely that a few solid games early in the season will rectify the underlying issues.
Tom Wilson is known for his chaotic style of play, making him a polarizing figure in the NHL; he is both despised by opposing fans and coveted by NHL executives. Despite his aging contract, the 30-year-old has substantial value within the league and has begun the season strongly, boasting five goals in his first seven games. However, this level of scoring is not likely to be maintained. The hype surrounding Wilson specifically stems from discussions about his potential inclusion on Canada’s roster for the Four Nations tournament. While Wilson is an effective player, it is vital to remember that international competitions emphasize selecting the most skilled players available, free from salary-cap constraints. In this context, Wilson may not rank among the top Canadian players. Although Canada may remain competitive without Wilson, the anticipation of his role on the national team appears overly optimistic.
The San Jose Sharks are poised for another challenging season, with a lack of competitiveness evident early on. Despite the team's struggles, Mikael Granlund has emerged as a rare positive presence, registering 10 points in his first nine games, following a productive 2022-23 campaign in which he netted 60 points over 69 games. Granlund's performance is commendable, especially given his initial perception as a salary-dump element in the Erik Karlsson trade. As he approaches free agency, Granlund’s strong early performance makes him a likely trade commodity for the Sharks before the deadline. However, potential buyers should exercise caution; while Granlund has had a successful career, players who accumulate points on underperforming teams do not always translate that success when transitioning to more competitive environments. The Sharks will likely endeavor to maximize Granlund's scoring opportunities in hopes of boosting his trade value, but the resulting situation may not yield favorable outcomes for the acquiring team.
With starting goaltender Thatcher Demko sidelined, the Vancouver Canucks have turned to their backup netminders, including veteran Kevin Lankinen, who has performed admirably with a 4-0-1 record and a .930 save percentage. This performance has helped the Canucks achieve the second-highest points percentage (.714) in the Pacific Division as the week progresses. While goaltenders can exhibit unpredictable performance fluctuations, Lankinen's early success may be attributed to him simply enjoying a favorable spell behind a competent team. Historically, Lankinen has posted a save percentage closer to .906 over more than 100 starts, which might more accurately reflect his capabilities. While Lankinen deserves recognition for his contributions this season, there remains a strong possibility that this level of performance will not be maintained over an extended period.