Dylan Cease: A Decisive Season and Future Prospects

This season was anticipated as a pivotal moment for Dylan Cease, potentially setting him up for a monumental contract. However, opinions on whether Cease had a successful or disappointing season largely depend on the pitching statistics one prioritizes.

During the 2025 season, Cease posted a record of 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA and 168.0 innings pitched. The underlying metrics present a more complex picture. While his traditional stats may reflect a subpar season, advanced analytics indicate a different narrative. Cease's 1.1 bWAR is right alongside similar disappointments, such as Jack Flaherty’s 4.64 ERA for Detroit.

Despite a record below .500, Cease managed only eight quality starts throughout 32 games. Yet, metrics such as FIP and xERA suggest he encountered significant misfortune, with his strikeout rate holding steady at 11.5 K/9. FanGraphs rated him at 3.4 fWAR, indicating value over replacement for the fifth consecutive year.

Comparisons and Free Agency Outlook

The question arises: will Cease attract a contract like Aaron Nola's? Their paths to free agency bear similarities. Over the years leading to free agency, both players have logged substantial innings and comparable ERA figures. Despite struggles, Nola secured a hefty $172 million contract, and Cease could command something along those lines this offseason.

Potential suitors for Cease include several teams:

• Los Angeles Dodgers: Although a perennial player in the free agency market, they might prioritize other areas, given their surplus of starting pitchers.
• New York Yankees: Similarly, the Yankees have a well-stocked rotation and may not pursue Cease aggressively.
• St. Louis Cardinals: With a pressing need for starting pitching, they could be a distinct possibility, although they have a reputation for cautious spending.
• Washington Nationals: Projected to finally invest in free agency again, Cease could be on their radar, but they might still be a year away from serious contention.
• Texas Rangers: Despite commitments to other pitchers, a rotation featuring Cease alongside deGrom and Eovaldi is tantalizing.

Other teams like the Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers, and the Chicago Cubs are also in the mix, each assessing how Cease fits into their long-term strategies amidst varying financial constraints and team needs. As the offseason unfolds, Cease’s unique combination of talent and recent misfortunes will have many clubs weighing their options.