Alexis Lafreniére has signed a seven-year contract extension with the New York Rangers, a decision that reflects a common trajectory for former first overall picks in the NHL. Typically, these players are quickly locked into long-term deals following their entry-level contracts. Lafreniére, who was the clear consensus top player in his draft year, is no exception. Despite the customary nature of such extensions for youthful talent, Lafreniére's path is filled with unique challenges.
The early seasons of Lafreniére's NHL career did not meet lofty expectations. While he showcased flashes of brilliance, he struggled to maintain a stable offensive presence, often relegated to the bottom six or even being a healthy scratch. Instead of the immediate long-term deal that many top picks receive when their entry-level contracts conclude, Lafreniére signed a two-year bridge deal valued at under $2.5 million annually. This arrangement was indicative of his less-than-stellar performance and the uncertainty surrounding his future in New York. Even considering his breakout campaign in the 2023-24 season, where he achieved a total of 57 points, the contract may not seem justified at first glance. However, both statistical and observational assessments indicate a strong belief in the Rangers' decision to secure this promising 23-year-old player long-term.
Lafreniére's journey to the Rangers was marked by extraordinary circumstances. The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted the 2019-20 NHL regular season, leading to an unusual series of draft lotteries. This bizarro situation culminated in the Rangers claiming the No. 1 overall pick despite a mere 3 percent chance of winning the lottery. Typically, top picks are conferred upon teams in rebuilding phases, which allows for ample opportunity for playing time in lower-pressure scenarios. However, Lafreniére entered a Rangers lineup already featuring established players like Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, and Pavel Buchnevich, making it challenging for him to secure prominent minutes as a rookie.
Finding himself in a checking role on the third line limited Lafreniére’s ability to showcase his skill set effectively. Furthermore, under the coaching tenures of David Quinn and Gerard Gallant, he did not receive optimal ice time for development. Gallant, who preferred veteran players, kept Lafreniére anchored in the bottom six, citing discomfort with playing on the right wing and prioritizing winning over player development. While Lafreniére holds some responsibility for his initial struggles, the team's approach did not position him for success.
Despite these challenges, indicators suggested that Lafreniére was on the verge of a significant breakout. In his first three NHL seasons, he placed second on the Rangers in goals scored at even strength. In fact, he was ranked 61st in the entire NHL during that stretch, all while managing limited ice time. There was legitimate reasoning to believe that with a consistent role on a scoring line, he could fully realize his potential.
The hiring of Peter Laviolette as the Rangers' head coach for the 2023-24 season marked a transformative moment for Lafreniére. Under Laviolette's guidance, Lafreniére was permanently shifted to the right wing and placed on a scoring line alongside Panarin and Vincent Trocheck. This line quickly emerged as one of the most formidable units in the NHL, demonstrating dominance in both expected goals and actual goal production, which has continued into the current season.
Over the past two seasons, Lafreniére ranks 18th in the NHL for both goals and points accrued during five-on-five play. The chemistry amongst the trio is striking, largely generated through their ability to exploit lateral movement. This tactic involves moving the puck across the slot to the weak side, compelling goaltenders to shift, and creating scoring opportunities. Essentially, Lafreniére thrives in this environment, particularly given Panarin's elite skills that enhance this dynamic. With Lafreniére being a left-handed shot, positioning him on the right wing allows him to receive passes in a prime shooting position. He can either shoot directly from his off-wing or transition the puck across the slot for an immediate attempt.
While the offensive unit boasts impressive firepower, it does come with defensive vulnerabilities, and Lafreniére bears some responsibility for these lapses. Nonetheless, the Rangers' coaching staff has adeptly focused on maximizing his strengths rather than overly concerning themselves with weaknesses. Though there may be defensive shortcomings, the offensive output outweighs the risks taken. Lafreniére is encouraged to embrace his potential more freely under Laviolette, and as he continues to develop, his ability to mitigate defensive issues is expected to improve.
To justify his lucrative new contract, Lafreniére must elevate his offensive contributions. Currently, he excels at even strength, but another step forward would be to assume a more prominent role on the Rangers' power-play unit. While his skills warrant inclusion, he faces competition within a depth chart noted for its strength. The Rangers' top power-play unit has ranked among the league's best in recent seasons, leaving little room for adjustment. Nevertheless, opportunities will eventually present themselves as the season progresses.
The substantial investment in Lafreniére may lead to tighter salary cap constraints for the Rangers over the next two seasons, particularly as they will need to negotiate contracts for other key players, with goaltender Igor Shesterkin being a primary focus. The team's roster may seem imbalanced with the substantial cap hits attributed to Lafreniére, Panarin, and Kreider, collectively amounting to $25.6 million for the upcoming season.
Looking ahead, the Rangers signed Lafreniére through his prime, while Panarin and Kreider's contracts will expire in 2026. At that point, the team can reevaluate either replacing them or negotiating more favorable terms. In the long term, Lafreniére's contract should not pose a significant issue. Conversely, during the immediate future, managing the salary cap may prove more challenging.
Successful teams often face the reality of having to navigate contracts for key players, and such issues are not uncommon. NHL franchises, including the Tampa Bay Lightning, Colorado Avalanche, and Boston Bruins, have demonstrated adeptness at managing financial constraints over the years. This trend reflects positively on the Rangers as they position themselves amongst these elite squads.
Consequently, while the Rangers may need to approach roster decisions with caution and frugality, they have already laid a solid foundation. With young players on entry-level contracts and further talent waiting in the wings, the organization is in a favorable position. Moreover, as evidenced by other successful teams, experienced veterans may also consider taking pay cuts to join successful franchises, enhancing their depth while keeping financial commitments manageable.
Ultimately, Lafreniére's long-term contract signals a robust commitment from the Rangers. This upfront investment aims to provide the organization with greater flexibility in the future while ensuring that a promising, developing player is retained at a reasonable cap hit throughout the duration of his prime.
