Adley Rutschman's Decline: From Superstar to Trade Block

In just over a year, Adley Rutschman has gone from being one of MLB's premier superstars to a player that the Baltimore Orioles may no longer depend on. This shift partly stems from the fact that the superstar label seems to no longer fit Rutschman, while his status has also been jeopardized by the recent contract extension signed by fellow catcher Samuel Basallo.

Given these developments, it's no surprise that insiders, such as Bob Nightengale from USA Today, predict that Rutschman will be “the biggest position player on the trade block this winter.” As the offseason approaches, teams will likely begin speculating about Rutschman's next destination, but the pressing question remains: what is Rutschman's trade value at this point?

The Rise and Recent Struggles

Rutschman was selected by the Orioles with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft and quickly began to realize his potential. He finished second in the American League Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 and achieved All-Star status in 2023 and 2024, helping lead his team to the playoffs. However, the turning point for Rutschman occurred on July 1, 2024, when he sustained an injury after taking a foul tip off his right hand—an incident that has led to ongoing physical challenges, including a current oblique strain.

Although Rutschman remains under club control through 2027, his surplus value, as assessed by Baseball Trade Values, is presently modest at $15 million. With that valuation, the Orioles may struggle to receive a considerable return for him should they decide to trade him during the offseason.

Potential Trade Destinations

Despite the uncertainty surrounding Rutschman's health and market value, he will likely draw interest from numerous teams looking for a change of scenery. Several clubs stand out as potential suitors:

• Pittsburgh Pirates: Currently experiencing a low rWAR and a weak OPS from their catchers, the Pirates find themselves in a playoff race and might explore Rutschman as a solution.
• Cincinnati Reds: With a solid pitching staff but struggling offense, Rutschman presents an enticing option to stabilize their lineup, although it would require moving current catcher Tyler Stephenson.
• St. Louis Cardinals: With a new leadership under Chaim Bloom, the Cardinals may seek Rutschman as part of an effort to reinvigorate their struggling franchise, despite being in a rebuilding phase.
• Arizona Diamondbacks: While they have a young talent in Gabriel Moreno, their urgent need for consistent performance could make Rutschman a desirable addition.
• San Diego Padres: As one of the worst teams in terms of catcher production, Rutschman could fit seamlessly into their plans for improvement.

Other potential destinations include the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, and San Francisco Giants, each possessing specific needs that Rutschman could address.

The upcoming offseason will be a crucial time for both Rutschman and the Orioles, as they navigate the possibility of trading a player who, despite recent struggles, still possesses significant talent and potential.