The NFL MVP award has become synonymous with prolific quarterback play, with passers winning for the last 13 consecutive years. This trend shows no signs of waning, as the league continues to be quarterback-driven. Following Matthew Stafford's first MVP at 37 years old, it’s clear that winning the prestigious award often correlates with a player’s team performance in the standings. With that in mind, we delve into the MVP rankings for 2026, focusing on first-time candidates who might break the cycle and earn the honor that often eludes players at non-quarterback positions.
Honorable Mentions
Before we dive into our top five candidates, it's worth mentioning a few notable players who, while not ranked, are still strong MVP contenders. Among them is Christian McCaffrey, the running back for the San Francisco 49ers.
Despite the fact that no non-quarterback has won the MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012, McCaffrey could disrupt that trend given his tremendous workload last season, where he recorded a career-high 413 touches, accumulating 2,126 scrimmage yards and scoring 17 touchdowns. As he approaches his age-30 season, it's unlikely he’ll replicate that feat. However, if the 49ers finish strong, and McCaffrey manages to achieve over 1,000 rushing yards along with significant receiving totals, his MVP prospects would be substantially bolstered.
Kyler Murray: A Change of Scenery
Next on our radar is Kyler Murray, the quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. Despite recent struggles, Murray is a two-time Pro Bowler with immense potential. Now with the Vikings, he will benefit from a supporting cast that includes two-time All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson and pass-catching threats like Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Under head coach Kevin O'Connell, who has orchestrated a top-six passing offense in three of the past four seasons, Murray has the opportunity to thrive and help the Vikings in their pursuit of an NFC top seed.
C.J. Stroud: Building on Rookie Success
C.J. Stroud, the Houston Texans quarterback, enters this conversation after a remarkable Rookie of the Year campaign last season. Although his passing tallies haven't significantly improved, he has displayed potential on a team poised for the playoffs. With the development of young receivers and the hopeful return of Tank Dell, Stroud may improve his statistical performance. If he achieves record-breaking passing numbers this season, his candidacy for MVP could be formidable, adding another layer of intrigue to an already promising situation.
Dak Prescott: The Overlooked Ace
Kicking off our top five is Dak Prescott, arguably one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league. Despite the Dallas Cowboys' inability to win sufficient games in the past few seasons, Prescott has consistently put up impressive stats. He led the league in completions in both the 2023 and 2025 seasons, along with throwing for over 30 touchdowns. This offseason, the Cowboys have added key defensive pieces, enhancing their competitiveness in the NFC East. If Prescott can continue his strong passing performance backed by a well-rounded team, he undoubtedly boosts his chances for MVP glory.
Caleb Williams: The Rising Star in Chicago
Ranking just above Prescott is Caleb Williams, the young quarterback from the Chicago Bears. In his first year, he propelled the team to an NFC North title, showcasing his talent and potential. Although the Bears traded away DJ Moore, they are still expected to significantly improve their aerial attack with the emergence of young talents like Luther Burden III and tight end Colston Loveland. Williams has the opportunity to surpass the 4,000 passing yards mark if he can refine his completion rate this season, thus enhancing his candidacy for MVP honors.
Drake Maye: The Almost-MVP
Following closely behind Williams is Drake Maye from the New England Patriots, who narrowly missed the MVP award last season, losing by just one vote. After a strong showing where he led the league in completion rate and passer rating, Maye has plenty of motivation going into this season. With the potential addition of star wideout A.J. Brown and other free-agent signings, Maye could evolve into one of the league’s top quarterbacks, especially if he can maintain his momentum from last season.
Justin Herbert: The Challenger
Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers rounds out our list of top contenders for MVP. Last season, Herbert exhibited resilience by producing impressive numbers despite limited support from his team due to injuries. With a change in offensive coordination and a healthy receiving corps, Herbert is poised to elevate his game. His combination of arm strength and mobility, coupled with a dynamic receiving group, positions him as a key contender if he can harness his potential effectively.
Joe Burrow: The MVP Favorite
Finally, we have Joe Burrow, who tops our MVP rankings. Despite battling injuries, Burrow's talent is undeniable. He led the league in passing yards and touchdowns in 2025 and has a proven track record with his receiving corps. If he can stay healthy and the Cincinnati Bengals can provide a strong season, Burrow will find himself firmly in the MVP conversation, with much riding on his performance as the team looks to bounce back from previous disappointments.
As the 2026 NFL season approaches, several players stand out as strong MVP candidates. Each brings unique strengths to the table, and the competition remains fierce. The race for the MVP title could be one of the most compelling storylines of the coming season.
