Introduction

As Major League Baseball (MLB) transitions toward a landscape increasingly focused on salary caps and luxury tax payrolls, the conversation around player contracts is bound to heat up. Some players truly prove their worth, but others are clearly overpaid, leading to difficult decisions for front offices. As we analyze 2026 salaries, we’ll look exclusively at luxury tax hits and Steamer projections for Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) to uncover the most regrettable contracts in the league.

Understanding Salary Cap Discussions

With salary cap talks looming large in the MLB's future, it’s essential for fans and analysts to adjust their perceptions of player value. The luxury tax system serves as a frontier for team spending, putting pressure on franchises to maximize value for every dollar spent. The current roster projections showcase a collective cost of approximately $460 million, yet underperforming players threaten to keep this group from breaking the .500 mark.

Analyzing the Most Overpaid Players

1. Sean Murphy - Atlanta Braves

Luxury Tax Salary: $20M | Steamer Projection: 1.2 fWARSean Murphy's six-year, $73 million extension signed in December 2022 is starting to loom large after two disappointing seasons. Although he averaged an impressive home run rate early in the season, a very flat second half left fans yearning for more consistency. Compounding issues with Marcell Ozuna's absence—along with a less-than-stellar hitting performance—has resulted in increasing scrutiny over Murphy's contract.

2. Christian Walker - Houston Astros

Luxury Tax Salary: $20M | Steamer Projection: 2.6 fWARChristian Walker's ups and downs provide a sense of déjà vu from José Abreu's tenure with the Astros. After a mediocre start, Walker's performance improved significantly, but the team remains wary of his long-term projection. At age 34, Walker’s ability to maintain performance levels will be pivotal for an Astros franchise aiming to avert another costly misstep.

3. José Altuve - Houston Astros

Luxury Tax Salary: $25M | Steamer Projection: 3.9 fWARJosé Altuve enters 2026 as one of the highest-paid second basemen yet comes off the least productive season of his career. Despite hitting 26 home runs, Altuve's overall batting average dropped significantly. As a player expected to anchor a championship-caliber lineup, there's immense pressure to restore his numbers, which could have a ripple effect on the team's payroll situation.

4. Bo Bichette - New York Mets

Luxury Tax Salary: $42M | Steamer Projection: 0.4 fWARThe Mets’ investment in Bo Bichette—a player transitioning to third base—is controversial. How effective his transition will be remains uncertain, and while his offensive numbers are respectable, the weight of a $42 million luxury tax salary is one that most infielders simply do not carry. The risk involved in untested player positions only adds to the scrutiny of his contract.

5. Javier Báez - Detroit Tigers

Luxury Tax Salary: $23.33M | Steamer Projection: 0.4 fWARAfter displaying flashes of brilliance, Javier Báez’s inconsistency raises red flags. Projected to maintain a negative fWAR, his hefty contract presents a rising concern for the Tigers. With salaries stacking up, the pressure will build on Báez to return to form to validate his value.

6. Kris Bryant - Colorado Rockies

Luxury Tax Salary: $20M | Steamer Projection: -0.1 fWARKris Bryant’s seven-year contract with Colorado turns out to be a miscalculation, particularly considering his inability to stay healthy and his declining offensive output. The Rockies must wish they could construct a more favorable outcome after four years of disappointment.

7. Kyle Tucker - Houston Astros

Luxury Tax Salary: $57.18M | Steamer Projection: 3.8 fWARKyle Tucker, while undoubtedly talented, finds himself at the center of discontent over his luxury tax salary. Although he has excelled over the years, Tucker's projected salary vastly outstrips his anticipated performance. As a four-time All-Star, the Astros need him to prove he’s worth every penny.

Concluding Thoughts

As far as overpaid MLB players go, the outlook based on luxury tax projections for 2026 raises valid concerns for teams like the Astros, Tigers, and Braves. The intersection of performance and salary demands scrutiny, especially as the conversation about a salary cap heats up. Consequently, team executives are faced with decisions that could lead to difficult trades, costly releases, or the pressure to deliver results— all while balancing the pursuit of championship glory.

Ultimately, understanding the dynamics of player contracts in the context of performance will become increasingly essential as the MLB forges ahead into its evolving financial landscape.