Corbin Burnes, who averaged 238.5 strikeouts between 2021 and 2022 and secured the NL Cy Young Award in 2021, has experienced a decline in swing-and-miss capabilities over the past two seasons, recording an average of 190.5 strikeouts while playing for both the Milwaukee Brewers and the Baltimore Orioles. This shift has sparked discussions regarding his appeal as a free agent. Although Burnes has not been able to replicate his previous strikeout totals, he has still pitched over 190 innings and earned All-Star honors in each of the past two seasons, achieving a combined ERA of 3.15 across 64 starts. Most recently, he finished fifth in the AL Cy Young Award voting for the recent season. At the start of the offseason, Bleacher Report projected a seven-year, $224 million contract for Burnes, ranking him just behind Juan Soto among free agents this offseason. While it remains uncertain whether he will command such a deal, it is likely that whoever signs him could benefit significantly.

The Chicago Cubs, who finished the previous season with a record of 83 wins, are seen as an intriguing fit for Burnes. A rotation featuring Burnes, Shota Imanaga, and Justin Steele could position them as strong contenders for the NL Central title in 2025. Additionally, with the Cubs only having Kyle Tucker under contract for a single season, the acquisition of Burnes could be particularly beneficial. The organization's decision-making is influenced by manager Craig Counsell's previous experience with Burnes during his tenure with the Brewers. However, there are concerns regarding the ownership's willingness to invest the necessary resources to secure his services, thereby placing the Cubs further down the list of potential landing spots for the pitcher.

On the other hand, while the Los Angeles Dodgers have already acquired Blake Snell and boast a rotation that includes Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the return of Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, and Tony Gonsolin from injury raises doubts about their interest in Burnes. However, if Burnes remains on the market long enough to consider a short-term contract with an early opt-out, the Dodgers might become a candidate. Despite their already impressive rotation, the Dodgers endured injury challenges in the 2024 season, emphasizing the potential value of a reliable workhorse like Burnes. As a California native, he may also have personal motivations to pitch for a team with championship aspirations.

Discussions surrounding the Boston Red Sox suggest hesitance among ownership to commit to high-value pitcher contracts, stemming from past experiences with David Price and Chris Sale. However, if ownership's concerns influence their decisions, the team's needs for improvement are glaring given their three-year playoff drought. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently acquired Garrett Crochet and could envision a rotation that includes Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford. There is also the possibility of Lucas Giolito returning from injury. Should the Red Sox pursue Burnes along with Crochet, it would signify a turnaround in their free agency strategy. The team's interest in Burnes may strengthen as the duration of his contract expectations decreases.

The situation at the Baltimore Orioles appears less promising for a Burnes return, particularly following changes in ownership from the Angelos family. New owner David Rubenstein might lack the financial resource willingness needed for Burnes, despite his significant contributions to the team's success as they look to capitalize on their competitive window with talents like Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman. The Orioles have recently added Japanese pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano, yet their rotation remains fragile with injuries affecting players like Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez. While the prospect of Burnes extending his stay in Baltimore cannot be wholly dismissed, general manager Mike Elias might see greater value in collecting potential draft compensation should Burnes choose to sign elsewhere.

The New York Mets have also become potential players for Burnes, although recent commitments—including a 15-year, $765 million deal for Juan Soto—call into question how much more the organization is willing to allocate for pitching. The uncertainty within their starting rotation, particularly with the departures of Luis Severino and Sean Manaea alongside health concerns for other pitchers, underscores the benefits of adding a pitcher of Burnes's caliber. His history of logging 190 or more innings in three consecutive seasons plus his prior connection with president of baseball operations David Stearns from their time in Milwaukee makes the Mets an intriguing option nonetheless, should owner Steve Cohen approve another substantial investment.

The Toronto Blue Jays, motivated to land a star player after a disappointing finish in a competitive AL East last season, have been mentioned in connection with both Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. There are discussions around possibly trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette, but indications suggest management is looking at ways to fortify their roster rather than rebuild. With the intent to negotiate a long-term deal to retain Guerrero, the signing of a marquee player like Burnes could bolster their rotation, which would join existing talents like Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt. This acquisition would not only improve the Blue Jays' standing but also weaken a rival in their division.

Finally, the San Francisco Giants enter the conversation as they have already signed shortstop Willy Adames to a major contract. However, signing Burnes would necessitate them relinquishing additional draft picks, a decision that may weigh heavily on the new president of baseball operations Buster Posey. Despite the potential penalties, Burnes’s connection to California and the chance to compete against strong competitors in the NL West—specifically the Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks—could incentivize the Giants to pursue this opportunity.