The Evolution of Offer Sheets in the NHL
Signing restricted free agents to offer sheets has historically been a rarely employed strategy among NHL general managers. Since the implementation of the salary cap two decades ago, only 12 players have signed offer sheets, with just four—Dustin Penner, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Dylan Holloway, and Philip Broberg—successfully signed away from their original teams. The signings of Holloway and Broberg by the St. Louis Blues in August marked a significant milestone, as it was the first instance in the cap era of two players from the same team (the Edmonton Oilers) being signed concurrently by another team. These acquisitions did not require exorbitant offers, as the Oilers were constrained by their salary cap, allowing the Blues to secure both players on manageable contracts. Holloway accepted a two-year deal with an average annual value (AAV) of $2.3 million, while Broberg agreed to a two-year contract with an AAV of $4.6 million.
For an extended period, there has been a prevailing notion that offer sheets were discouraged among general managers due to concerns about fostering resentment and engaging in retaliatory bidding wars. A notable example occurred when the Montreal Canadiens attempted to sign Sebastian Aho away from the Carolina Hurricanes in 2019, only to see the Hurricanes later sign Kotkaniemi from Montreal in a similar fashion two years later. However, Blues general manager Doug Armstrong appeared unfazed by this sentiment, stating, "If there is a GM code not to do offer sheets, no one emailed it to me." Armstrong underscored that offer sheets are a legitimate tool within the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) that should be utilized more frequently. His perspective may signal a shift in attitude among some of his counterparts, especially with a projected salary cap increase to $92.4 million for the 2025-26 season, potentially prompting others to pursue offer sheets against financially constrained rivals.
As the summer approaches, certain players, such as Evan Bouchard of the Edmonton Oilers, are poised to enter restricted free agency. Bouchard, along with others identified as potential offer sheet targets for the 2025 offseason, may capture the attention of teams seeking to bolster their rosters. On the other hand, the St. Louis Blues face their own salary cap challenges for the 2025-26 season, projected to have roughly $3.1 million in space with 20 active roster players under contract. Restricted free agents like Scott Perunovich and Joel Hofer could attract interest from other franchises, particularly Hofer, who, at 24 years old, may appeal to clubs in need of goaltending depth. Completing a two-year contract with an AAV of $775,000, his successful record and potential performance could lead to offers in the range of $2.5 million to $3 million annually, accompanied by a second-round pick compensation.
In New York, Kaapo Kakko's situation had been uncertain prior to this season, especially after a dip in production that saw his points total plummet from 40 points in 2022-23 down to just 19 points in 61 games last season. His recent one-year contract worth $2.4 million with the Rangers does little to alleviate speculation surrounding his future. Originally selected second overall in the 2019 NHL Draft, Kakko struggled to fulfill expectations as a scoring winger. Following a trade to the Seattle Kraken on December 18, his performance rebounded, tallying 13 points in just 14 games, positioning him for a potential career-high points total. Given the Kraken's projected cap space of $12.5 million, re-signing Kakko could pose challenges, particularly if he seeks a substantial raise, potentially drawing interest from rival teams considering a two-year offer sheet around $4.5 million annually.
As the New York Rangers navigate a challenging season, management has already begun making significant changes. After entering the season as President's Trophy winners, the Rangers faced a tough struggle for a wild-card position in the Eastern Conference. The team traded former captain Jacob Trouba to the Anaheim Ducks and Kaapo Kakko to the Seattle Kraken in December . These trades allowed them to clear Trouba’s $8.5 million cap hit for the upcoming season, resulting in a projected cap space of approximately $23.3 million under the anticipated $92.4 million cap ceiling. This financial flexibility could enable the Rangers to retain key restricted free agents such as Will Cuylle, Adam Edstrom, and K'Andre Miller while also providing room to pursue additional roster needs, such as a backup goaltender, in the event that Jonathan Quick exits the franchise as a free agent or retires. Chris Drury, the Rangers' general manager, may utilize a significant portion of this cap space to explore the free-agent market, potentially limiting their ability to retain RFAs like Miller, who is currently completing a two-year contract with an AAV of $3.9 million. With a challenging season behind him, Miller could become a candidate for an offer sheet as well.
Matthew Knies of the Toronto Maple Leafs has been making a name for himself as a promising power forward this season. Standing 6'3" and weighing 227 pounds, Knies has notched 16 goals and 28 points in 45 games thus far, surpassing his previous season's goal production and on track to achieve a career-best performance. Currently in the final year of his entry-level contract and lacking arbitration rights, Knies may find himself in a position of negotiation leverage, potentially prompting rival clubs to consider extending an offer sheet. If he manages to reach or exceed the 30-goal mark, his asking price could escalate to between $5.5 million and $6.5 million annually. Should he receive such an offer, a first and a third-round pick would be required as compensation if the Leafs opted not to match the deal. With a projected cap space of $27.4 million under the anticipated salary cap, the Maple Leafs may still face difficulties retaining Knies if they prioritize re-signing key unrestricted free agents Mitch Marner and John Tavares.
The Edmonton Oilers, known for having the highest-scoring duo in the NHL with superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, are also home to one of the league's premier puck-moving defensemen in Evan Bouchard. As a restricted free agent this summer with arbitration rights, Bouchard, 25, has shown dynamic potential in previous seasons, securing two 40-plus point campaigns before achieving a career-high of 82 points last season. Although his production has dipped this season, with 35 points in 46 games, he remains on track to exceed 60 points. Considering his offensive capabilities, Bouchard could command a significant raise from his current $3.9 million salary. The Oilers, with an estimated $16 million in cap space, could strive to lock Bouchard down for around $7.5 million annually; however, a competing organization may tempt him with an offer sheet exceeding $9 million annually. An offer sheet of $9.5 million would carry considerable compensation costs, possibly amounting to two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and a third-round pick. While the Oilers could match such a proposal, doing so might severely limit their ability to fill out their roster effectively.