As the 2026 MLB season reaches a thrilling conclusion, it's impossible to overlook how the landscape of star players has shifted dramatically since the previous season. While some players continue to shine, others have faced inexplicable declines, raising questions about their performance. Among those fading from the spotlight are two poster boys for this shift: Cal Raleigh and Paul Skenes. Both players, who ranked highly in fWAR for the 2025 season, have seen their stock plummet. Where is the magic they once had, and what does this mean for their teams?
A Shocking Decline in Performance
In 2025, Cal Raleigh and Paul Skenes were regarded as rising stars, contributing significantly to their respective teams. However, as their performance dipped in 2026, they transitioned from being top prospects to names that now draw concern. Raleigh, once a key player for the Mariners, has dropped to an alarming .161 batting average with just 12 home runs in 87 games. Likewise, Skenes, last year’s Cy Young Award winner, has seen his earned run average (ERA) skyrocket, leading to questions about his future in the league.
Examining Paul Skenes: From Cy Young Winner to Uncertainty
Paul Skenes made headlines in 2025 with remarkable stats, including a 1.97 ERA and 216 strikeouts. His performance earned him the distinguished title of the NL Cy Young Award. However, fast forward to 2026, and Skenes' numbers tell a different story. With a 3.88 ERA in 25 starts and a worrying decline in strikeout rate, the once-celebrated pitcher has struggled to find his old form.
Manager Don Kelly’s decision to limit Skenes to 65 pitches in recent outings signals a lack of confidence in his abilities. Several theories have emerged to explain Skenes' atypical performance: a potential lingering issue from his participation in the World Baseball Classic, mechanical problems with his delivery, or possibly an undisclosed injury. His velocity has noticeably dropped, contributing to a loss of the dominant pitches that once struck fear in batters.
Could the World Baseball Classic Be a Factor?
Participation in the World Baseball Classic may have impacted Skenes more than anticipated. A high-intensity tournament can lead to fatigue, even if it doesn’t result in an extended workload. Although Skenes performed well for Team USA, the transitional period back to regular season play may have altered his mechanics and rhythm. It’s essential the Pirates support Skenes as he seeks to adjust back to his pre-2026 form.
Cal Raleigh’s Compounding Woes
Across the diamond, Cal Raleigh's decline has been just as puzzling. After an impressive 2025 season where he hit 60 home runs and boasted a .589 slugging percentage, hardly anyone expected the slump he would face in 2026, where he is currently flirting with the Mendoza line. With a .270 OBP and troubling strikeout rates, Raleigh has struggled significantly.
Similar to Skenes, Raleigh participated in the World Baseball Classic, where various pressures may have played a role in his season's slow start. Despite these challenges, the fundamental issues appear to revolve around technique and mental approach. Reports suggest he’s been overanalyzing and changing his stance, leading to detrimental swings that have further hurt his performance.
Are They Just Going Through a Rough Patch?
For both Skenes and Raleigh, the critical question remains: Are these struggles indicative of longer-term trends, or merely a rough patch in otherwise promising careers? Team support and adjustments may help return both players to form. Nevertheless, both players must navigate these obstacles with determination and adaptability to turn their seasons around.
What About Other Notable Players?
Raleigh and Skenes are not alone in experiencing significant drops in production. Several notable players, including Aaron Judge and Francisco Lindor, have also seen declines in their performance metrics. For instance, Judge's WAR has drastically dropped over 100 spots compared to last season, and Lindor's continued decline raises concern for the Mets as they navigate their playoff push.
Moreover, players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kyle Tucker, and Gunnar Henderson have also faced challenges. Despite these setbacks, there are signs pointing toward potential rebounds for some, as they figure out adjustments necessary for a successful return.
Looking Ahead: A Season of Change
The 2026 MLB season serves as a reminder of the cyclical nature of sports and how quickly fortunes can change in the world of baseball. Each of these players, while struggling, possesses immense talent and potential. It remains crucial for fans and analysts alike to consider context before concluding that they are “cooked.” With the right support, rehabilitation, and mental adjustments, they could very well return to their previous form in the upcoming seasons.
As the playoff chase intensifies, the performance of these struggling stars will be closely monitored, not just for their individual futures, but also for the fate of their teams. As fans, we can only wait and hope for their inevitable rebounds and the exciting drama that baseball continues to provide.
