On November 11th, Moneyline published predictions regarding the signings and contract amounts for the top 25 MLB free agents. As of now, only one player from the top 10 has made a decision, with Blake Snell finalizing a five-year deal worth $182 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the reigning World Series champions. The contract, which includes $65 million in deferrals, has garnered attention as it aligns with Snell's status as a two-time Cy Young Award recipient. This leaves nine remaining free agents from the original top 10 still searching for destinations.
Among these top free agents, Juan Soto's best fit will likely be determined by which team offers him the most lucrative contract. Speculation suggests that it may come down to the two New York teams, with the possibility that Mets owner Steve Cohen could make a significant play to outbid Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner. Soto has proved his worth while playing for the Yankees, notably finishing third in AL MVP voting during the 2024 season with 41 home runs, 109 RBIs, and an impressive .989 OPS. Yankees fans might also lament that under the late George Steinbrenner, such departures would have been inconceivable, particularly to the Mets, historically viewed as the 'little brother' of the Yankees. Furthermore, a projection of a 14-year, $658 million contract for Soto would be a staggering commitment for any team, especially the Yankees, who have long been synonymous with financial prowess.
Turning to Corbin Burnes, while his strikeout rate has declined from previous seasons, he remains a formidable starting pitcher. In 2024, Burnes recorded a 15-9 record and a 2.92 ERA over 194.1 innings, finishing fifth in AL Cy Young voting. There are indications that Burnes can continue to be an effective arm even without dominating the strikeout leaderboard. As the Baltimore Orioles look to strengthen their rotation under new ownership, their willingness to commit to Burnes might be tested against a projected seven-year, $224 million deal. The Mets, on the other hand, are confirmed buyers in the market, and acquiring Soto could affect their pursuit of Burnes. The Orioles might struggle to retain Burnes but still require a front-line pitcher as they seek a World Series victory during the talent-rich phase of Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman.
Max Fried is another pivotal player in the free agency discussions. Having undergone Tommy John surgery earlier in his career, Fried has avoided major injuries since. He has shown consistency over the past five seasons, amassing three Gold Gloves, two All-Star selections, and two top-five finishes in Cy Young voting. A projected six-year deal worth $168 million would represent a significant investment for the Orioles, showcasing a commitment to transition from previous years of frugality.
In the realm of first basemen, players like Pete Alonso often face skepticism regarding contractual length as they age. Yet, Alonso has showcased his power, hitting 40 or more home runs on three occasions, and despite hitting only 34 home runs and 88 RBIs in the previous season, he remains a highly regarded option. As he enters his age-30 season, a five-year contract worth $135 million has been projected for the four-time All-Star. If the Mets do not secure Soto, securing Alonso could serve as an advantageous alternative.
Willy Adames is another player whose free agency status has drawn attention. Having hit 32 home runs and driven in 112 runs last season, Adames may be priced out of the Milwaukee Brewers' budget. With a projection of seven years and $180 million, the San Francisco Giants might find him an appealing option as they seek to bolster their shortstop position. With new leadership in Buster Posey, the Giants are eager to enhance their offensive lineup, a necessity that has persisted since the departure of Barry Bonds in 2007.
Alex Bregman, now a well-established presence in the Houston Astros organization, has seen his opportunities expand as a free agent. With a Gold Glove recently added to his accolades alongside multiple All-Star nominations and World Series titles, Bregman maintains considerable value. Houston general manager Dana Brown has noted that retaining Bregman is a priority, citing mutual interests between player and team.
The Detroit Tigers, having showcased a strong offensive performance, now seek more firepower, especially beyond their postseason run. Anthony Santander, who recorded 44 home runs and 102 RBIs in the previous season, could be an ideal fit for the Tigers, allowing them to address their lineup deficiencies while improving overall strength in right field. Santander’s projected five-year deal at $101 million would further signify the Tigers' commitment to returning to competitive form.
Teoscar Hernández, after a standout season with the Dodgers, has drawn interest as a free agent. He excelled with 33 home runs and an .840 OPS, culminating in a Silver Slugger award. Despite declining a qualifying offer from Los Angeles, a return on a three-year deal could be beneficial for both parties given the uncertainties in the Dodgers' outfield. Should he sign elsewhere, any team will need to consider the implications of draft compensation.
Jack Flaherty is positioned as an intriguing free agent, revitalizing his career with a solid 3.17 ERA in 2024. Only 29 years old, Flaherty’s health remains a concern, prompting projections of a three-year, $60 million deal with an opt-out option. The Atlanta Braves emerge as a plausible landing spot, especially if they lose Fried and Charlie Morton. Flaherty could add significant depth to a rotation aiming to remain competitive within the NL East.
