The current NHL collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is set to expire in September 2026. For those involved in the sport over the past decade, this prospect might be met with trepidation. However, this summer, the NHL owners and the NHL Players Association managed to come to a preliminary agreement regarding the new deal. Although the full Memorandum of Understanding has not yet been publicly released, NHL insider Frank Seravalli has outlined an intriguing change: starting with the new CBA, each NHL team will have the ability to assign one 19-year-old prospect to their American Hockey League (AHL) team each season. This change would potentially impact 32 players annually, marking a significant adjustment in the developmental landscape for NHL prospects.

Traditionally, under the existing Canadian Hockey League (CHL) – NHL agreement, players drafted from one of Canada’s major junior leagues—namely, the Ontario Hockey League (OHL), Western Hockey League (WHL), or Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL)—could not transition to the AHL or ECHL until they turned 20 years old or completed four seasons in the CHL. This rule did not apply to players who were drafted from other junior leagues and subsequently joined a CHL team. With the implementation of the new CBA anticipated for the 2026-2027 season, the first cadre of players affected will include those born in 2007. For instance, Vancouver Canucks prospect Braeden Cootes, turning 19 in February 2026, could be assigned to the Abbotsford Canucks that autumn if the Vancouver front office determines that his development would benefit more from AHL experience than continued play in the WHL.

This change, based on age rather than draft year, means that a newly drafted CHL player who turns 19 the autumn following their draft could potentially bypass a return to the CHL entirely. Take Ryan Roobroeck, a top prospect eligible for the 2026 draft, who has a birthday in September 2007. If Roobroeck were to sign his entry-level contract (ELC) immediately and participate in his NHL team's development camp, there exists the opportunity for him to be directly assigned to the AHL rather than returning to the Niagara IceDogs of the OHL. This new pathway provides CHL-affiliated prospects with a crucial opportunity for development that has been long overdue. Reflecting on past cases, one might recall how this option could have significantly benefited Dylan Strome, who, despite his high skill level with the Erie Otters, faced challenges during his development due to not being ready for the NHL and subsequently encountering setbacks with these conditions. More recently, players like Cole Perfetti and Shane Wright have demonstrated that playing at the AHL level can provide essential experience and growth opportunities. Wright's recent exception to participate with the Coachella Valley Firebirds amidst a pandemic-affected season exemplifies the advantages such a rule could manifest for young talent.

This new protocol is also noteworthy in that the team's assignment of players would be limited to "one player per organization per season." This indicates teams could not assign one 19-year-old prospect, then call him back or move to another junior team and assign another 19-year-old for AHL play within the same season. This is unlikely to pose a significant issue as it is infrequent for teams to have multiple 19-year-old prospects at the CHL level needing a more robust developmental path at once. For NHL organizations, the ability to keep a top prospect closely monitored and closely integrated within the team is invaluable, not to mention that these players remain readily available for call-ups when necessary. Conversely, CHL teams may find themselves at a disadvantage in retaining their top talents, as the one-player limitation likely derives from negotiations influenced by the CHL. Teams may wish to safeguard their elite players, yet while each NHL team can only assign one player, a potentially unlimited number can be drawn from each CHL squad. For those organizations with a wealth of high-level prospects selected by various NHL teams, this creates a precarious situation.

Furthermore, this newly established developmental path allows elite CHL players to avoid the quandary of remaining unprepared for NHL play yet also not requiring a return to the CHL. Instead, they can secure professional hockey opportunities a year early, allowing them to confront weaknesses and leverage their strengths at the AHL level rather than clocking time on the bench in the NHL or dominating in junior leagues without further gains in experience. A prominent example may be seen in the OHL's London Knights, recognized as a powerhouse in junior hockey. While their players accumulate victories, the lack of adversity may hinder individual improvement. With NHL teams recognizing this factor, they may choose to directly transition a promising 19-year-old from the Knights to the AHL to bolster their chances of growth.

This development also brings unanticipated yet related outcomes. As noted by Scott Wheeler, a prospect analyst for The Athletic, multiple agents have expressed that players may prefer the prospect of transitioning from the CHL to the AHL—with its accompanying entry-level signing bonuses—over pursuing NCAA opportunities. An executive from a CHL team highlighted that, contingent upon the final language of the CBA, moving to the AHL at 19 may also enable players to acquire their arbitration rights a year earlier. Such an opportunity could represent a substantial advantage for prospective players, rivaling or eclipsing the value of entering professional hockey a year early. The potential for securing earlier arbitration rights alongside the guaranteed bonuses and salaries offered in the AHL may prove more enticing than NCAA paths, particularly with uncertainties surrounding Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) regulations and their implications for foreign-born players. As a result, young players will be more inclined to pursue AHL careers instead of returning to school, strengthening the likelihood of sustained professional engagement.