NFL Playoff Race Intensifies as Teams Eye Draft Position

As the 2025 NFL season enters its final two weeks, the competition for both playoff spots and the coveted No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft is intensifying. With only a few teams remaining in the hunt, the stakes are high as they evaluate their options for the upcoming draft.

New York Giants: Tracking the No. 1 Pick

If the season concluded today, the New York Giants would hold the No. 1 overall pick with a 33% chance of retaining that slot by season's end, according to The Athletic's simulation model. The Giants' path is simple: losing their upcoming game against the Las Vegas Raiders and a subsequent matchup against the Dallas Cowboys would secure their top draft selection.

Should they claim the No. 1 pick, the Giants are likely to trade it to a quarterback-needy team, potentially garnering a lucrative package of picks. Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the top-ranked quarterback prospect, and his value could mirror that of the Chicago Bears’ 2023 trade, which saw them swap the No. 1 pick for a first-round pick, a second-round pick, and receiver D.J. Moore.

Las Vegas Raiders: A Chance to Capitalize

With a 34% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, the Raiders' future hinges on their performance against the Giants and the Kansas City Chiefs. If they defeat the Giants, their probability of securing the top pick rises to 62%.

The Raiders, who might undergo a coaching change soon, should consider staying put if they get the top pick. Standing at the helm, veteran quarterback Geno Smith lacks long-term viability, making Mendoza a compelling option.

Cleveland Browns: The Variable Factor

Currently positioned third in the draft order with a 22% chance of claiming the top pick, the Cleveland Browns face a complicated decision-making process. Their final two weeks against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals will play a critical role in determining their draft strategy. Depending on how rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders performs, the Browns may opt for a top QB prospect like Mendoza or Moore if they decide to move on.

New York Jets: Solidifying Their Position

The Jets currently sit fourth with only a 12% chance of earning the No. 1 pick, but they could still find themselves in contention if they lose their remaining games. Historically struggling with quarterback selections, they would benefit from having their pick of available QBs in the draft, especially given their multiple first-round picks and significant cap space heading into 2026.

Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals: Long Shots

The Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals also have hopes of positioning themselves for the top pick, albeit with very slim chances. Tennessee's path to the No. 1 pick is complex, while Arizona's troubles have left them with a faint opportunity. A shift from quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill and Kyler Murray could be imminent if either team were to secure a top-draft pick.

Conclusion

The final weeks of the NFL season promise drama not only for playoff contenders but also for those angling for a favorable position in the 2026 NFL Draft. As franchises weigh their decisions, the outcomes will significantly influence their futures.