Impact of Year Two on NFL Rookies: Expectations and Development

Most NFL rookies encounter challenges as they transition from the collegiate game, each falling along a varied developmental spectrum. The level of investment in each player can determine the amount of patience a franchise can afford. Among the rookies, certain individuals emerge as standouts. Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is one such exception. A first-year quarterback is not typically expected to start on Day 1, throw for over 3,500 yards, lead the team in rushing yardage, and aid in reaching the NFC Championship Game. The usual experience involves navigating the inevitable ups and downs that come with learning to play professionally. However, as top prospects enter their second year, expectations shift significantly, with the anticipation of a year spent in the system and a full offseason to refine their skills.
Moneyline highlights eight notable first-round selections from the 2024 NFL Draft, including three quarterbacks who must demonstrate substantial improvement throughout the 2025 season. Expectations loom especially large for Caleb Williams, the Chicago Bears' top pick. Initially hesitant about joining the Bears, Williams reportedly expressed a change of heart after attending a pre-draft visit, stating, "I can do it for this team I'm going to go to the Bears." Unfortunately, Williams's first year was marred by inadequate guidance from the previous coaching staff, which culminated in the midseason firings of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and head coach Matt Eberflus. With new head coach and offensive play-caller Ben Johnson at the helm, Year 2 presents an opportunity for a dramatic turnaround, placing the responsibility on Williams to consolidate his growing knowledge and skills.
General manager Ryan Poles has bolstered the 2024 No. 1 overall pick's supporting cast by enhancing the offensive line through the acquisitions of Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson. Additionally, the Bears added talent in the draft with tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III. Williams now faces the challenge of improving his preparation, enhancing his pre-and post-snap field awareness, refining his footwork, particularly from under center, and ensuring timely, rhythm-based throws. Overseeing this development, Poles emphasized the importance of fostering a competitive environment, stating, "I think there's a space for building someone's confidence, but I think you have to be demanding and challenging of the expectations of what you're looking for. I think guys respond to that really well, and I think he needs that and desires that."
As Williams develops, comparisons to fellow first-round pick Jayden Daniels are inevitable. During the 2024 NFL Draft, the Atlanta Falcons surprised many when they selected quarterback Michael Penix Jr. as the eighth overall pick, despite having signed veteran Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal earlier in the offseason. The Falcons aimed to secure a quality starting option following the trade of Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts prior to the 2022 season. Although Cousins was benched by Week 16, Penix made appearances in the final three games of the season, demonstrating potential as a starting-caliber quarterback, albeit with mixed results. Notably, during three contests, Penix's performance included completing fewer than 60% of his passes and a troubling ratio of interceptions to touchdowns. Nevertheless, he earned an impressive 87.9 overall grade from Pro Football Focus in his final game of the season, indicating his capability to perform at a high level.
The Falcons' coaching staff recognized signs that Penix could develop into a franchise quarterback, with quarterbacks coach T.J. Yates noting his ability to manipulate defenders with his eyes and comprehend the overall field picture. Heading into Year 2, Penix needs to enhance his throw layering and pressure handling, especially since Atlanta's roster is loaded with offensive talent capable of supporting a playoff push. J.J. McCarthy of the Minnesota Vikings will similarly face comparisons to the previous Minnesota starter, Sam Darnold, during the 2025 campaign. Coming off a season marred by a torn meniscus that limited his appearances, McCarthy is under pressure to establish himself as a franchise quarterback. The Vikings traded up in the '24 draft to secure McCarthy with the 10th overall pick. Despite his absence, Darnold orchestrated an impressive season, earning a Pro Bowl nod while leading the Vikings to a 14-3 record. Darnold's subsequent departure in free agency to the Seattle Seahawks puts the onus squarely on McCarthy to fulfill expectations.
Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell, recognized for his expertise in quarterback development, will test McCarthy against the standard set by Darnold. McCarthy expressed confidence about stepping into the starting role, articulating, "I know I'm ready to start because of all the work I've put in and just the confidence in my skills and abilities." However, McCarthy's challenge is to convert his confidence into tangible leadership and performance on the field. Marvin Harrison Jr., seen as a premier wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson, began his rookie season with the Arizona Cardinals amid high expectations but acknowledged room for improvement. Throughout the season, Harrison experienced stretches of limited involvement, reflecting the need for strategic alterations in how the Cardinals deploy him.
Harrison noted a focus on building strength to match NFL competition, stating, "Yeah, I definitely put on some pounds, I think I added some muscle to my body a little bit." Inside the Cardinals' facilities, there is optimism that Harrison’s physical enhancements and experience from his rookie year will lead to improved productivity in his sophomore season. Despite finishing his first season with respectable statistics—62 catches for 885 yards and eight touchdowns—his contributions often came inconsistently as defenses made adjustments. The team's coaches can optimize Harrison's potential by creatively utilizing him in formations to ensure he remains a consistent target.
On the Pittsburgh Steelers front, rookie Troy Fautanu was expected to make an immediate impact, but injuries hindered his development last season. After suffering an MCL sprain in the preseason, he made his first start in Week 2 but was subsequently placed on injured reserve due to a dislocated kneecap. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin recognized the potential Fautanu exhibited before the injuries. The organization is poised to rely on his performance this year, particularly with the transition of Broderick Jones to the left tackle position. The Steelers' offensive line expects to capitalize on the youthful core established in the previous draft, coinciding with the uncertain state of their quarterback position.
In Green Bay, offensive lineman Jordan Morgan embarks on a critical preseason camp aimed at transitioning from guard to left tackle. After six appearances as a rookie, Morgan is now in contention to start at his collegiate position, where he garnered significant experience. The Packers' offensive line will benefit as Morgan solidifies the left side, protecting quarterback Jordan Love and contributing to the team's overall success going forward. Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts' Laiatu Latu faces the pressure of high expectations following his selection as the 15th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft; however, he struggled to establish himself during his rookie year. Latu, whose talent was thought to be the best in the draft class defensively, earned a modest four sacks last season and fell behind in recognition to other first-year players.
Colts head coach Shane Steichen believes Latu possesses the work ethic necessary for improvement, with aspirations for him to record double-digit sacks in his second season. Now positioned for a starting role following a departure of a key player, Latu has an opportunity to justify the faith placed in him. Finally, Dallas Turner, who entered the NFL following a standout collegiate career at Alabama, needs to carve out a larger role for himself within the Minnesota Vikings as he transitions into his second season. Despite a lack of starts in his rookie campaign, the Vikings remain optimistic about his potential, especially with the acquisition of seasoned talent on the defensive line, which can alleviate pressure and enhance his productivity.
Turner faces the challenge of stepping up next season, as the Vikings expect significant improvement in line with his status as a first-round selection. With a focus on refining skills alongside experienced teammates, Turner aims to contribute substantially to the Vikings' defensive efforts moving forward. Overall, the second-year seasons of these prominent NFL rookies are pivotal as they transition from potential to impactful contributors. Their growth will not only shape their respective teams but also influence the leagues as they evolve.








