The Countdown to Fantasy Draft Season
As NFL training camps ramp up and the preseason draws near, the excitement surrounding the 2026 football season is palpable. Fantasy football enthusiasts are now gearing up for what is arguably one of the most thrilling times of the year: the fantasy draft season. With August around the corner, savvy managers are diving deep into player rankings and average draft position (ADP) data, identifying potential sleepers and risks that could shape their leagues.
Understanding Boom/Bust Players
For many, this draft season heralds the return of the "boom/bust" player concept—those athletes who, while possessing immense upside, also carry considerable risk. Targeting players with high ceilings means finding athletes who can not only be consistent starters but also become vital to team success. However, these players often come with frightening low floors, which could jeopardize an entire team's season.
Lamar Jackson: The MVP Candidate
This year, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson stands out as a compelling boom/bust candidate with an ADP of QB2. Currently being drafted at an average positioning of 54, Jackson trails leading signal-caller Josh Allen. But don't be fooled—if Jackson returns to his fantasy apex of two seasons ago, he could surpass many expectations and dominate the quarterback landscape. In 2021, Jackson amassed an incredible 4,172 passing yards, 41 touchdown passes, and 915 rushing yards. Despite his impressive stats, Jackson's inconsistency remains a cause for concern. He has endured seasons with finishes outside the top-15 and faced injuries that limited his playtime, including a disappointing 2025 season. Managers must weigh his potential against the risks he poses before deciding where to draft him.
A Pocket Passer’s Dilemma: Joe Burrow
Next up is Joe Burrow, currently holding an ADP of QB4. As the highest-drafted pure pocket passer, Burrow has shown flashes of brilliance, having led the league in passing attempts, completions, and touchdowns in his breakout 2023 season. However, his history of injuries raises questions about his durability. A key part of Burrow's potential success lies in the performance of his offensive line, which ranked among the lowest last season. Though optimism surrounds returning starters, whether Burrow can maintain his health and consistency remains to be seen.
Christian McCaffrey: A Running Back with Risks
For running backs, look no further than Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers, carrying the heaviest boom/bust label due to an ADP of RB3. Despite being a previous fantasy superstar, historical patterns suggest that running backs who exceed 370 touches often struggle the following season, and McCaffrey’s history of injury only heightens these concerns. However, if he can replicate his standout performances, he could easily outpace the competition. Last season, McCaffrey amassed over 2,000 total yards and 21 touchdowns, an impressive feat that left him with a 40-point lead over the next highest-scoring running back. Still, the threat of a repeat injury influences fantasy drafters significantly.
De'Von Achane: Under Pressure in Miami
De'Von Achane has been turning heads with his high potential at RB7, after surpassing 1,800 total yards in the previous season. Achane’s speed and ability to gain yards after contact places him in a promising light. However, with a new starting quarterback in Malik Willis and a poor offensive line projected, Achane's circumstances significantly limit his ceiling. Additionally, having recently undergone shoulder surgery poses further risks for handlers keen on making him a late-round hero.
Drake London: The Wild Card
Wide receiver Drake London remains a fascinating yet inconsistent option at WR7. Known for his high target volume, he excelled in the 2024 season, earning the fourth-most PPR points among wideouts. However, his ability to replicate that success is hindered by inconsistent quarterback play, particularly with injuries affecting both Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa. Despite being a promising WR1, uncertainties abound about the Falcons’ passing game.
Rashee Rice: A Case of High Expectations
Finally, the Kansas City Chiefs’ Rashee Rice emerges as a polarizing figure in the receiver landscape with an ADP of WR11. While Rice finished among the league's elite in per-game productivity during 2025, his extensive injury history raises questions about his availability. Additionally, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes experiencing recovery from an ACL tear, concerns about both Rice's on-field performance and off-field risks increase significantly.
Brock Bowers: A Promising Tight End
For tight ends, Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders enters the fray as a potential second TE off the board. Having scored impressively in his first two seasons, Bowers showcases the potential to break records in 2026. Yet, doubts remain regarding a significant increase in target share amidst a roster shake-up and head coach changes, making this decision one fantasy managers might regret.
Tyler Warren: Building on Rookie Success
Lastly, Tyler Warren of the Indianapolis Colts had a commendable rookie season but carries sizable risk stemming from uncertainties surrounding their quarterback situation. The Colts' offense remains in transition, and while Warren’s individual development could yield dividends, a volatile passing attack might stifle his potential.
The Stakes Are High
As fantasy managers prepare for the draft, the stakes are undoubtedly high. Identifying boom/bust players can make or break a fantasy season. The key lies in weighing potential against risk—a balance that can lead to triumph or disaster in a competitive league.
