As of now, twenty NFL franchises have captured at least one Super Bowl title, a figure that remains unchanged since the Philadelphia Eagles joined the ranks at the close of the 2017 season. Nevertheless, current odds from Moneyline reveal that three of the top ten contenders for the Super Bowl this year are franchises that have yet to secure the Vince Lombardi Trophy. This analysis will explore those three teams, as well as the other nine franchises still seeking their first championship, and assess their chances of breaking through in the 2025 season.

Leading the pack in Super Bowl odds is the Buffalo Bills. Known for their dominance in the AFC East, the Bills have clinched the division crown with a minimum of eleven wins in each of the past five seasons, narrowly missing the Super Bowl appearance last year. Many are left wondering whether this will be the year they finally break through or if the team struggles under pressure in critical January games. Their path appears clearer now, particularly with the Kansas City Chiefs showing vulnerability recently and the Baltimore Ravens underperforming in the postseason. Sharp Football Analysis indicates that Buffalo faces the fifth-easiest schedule in the league, giving them a solid opportunity to make a strong postseason push. Likelihood of success: 20%.

The Cincinnati Bengals have certainly showcased more talent than their recent 9-8 records suggest. With the league's sixth-highest-scoring offense led by quarterback Joe Burrow, who was in the MVP conversation had the team reached the playoffs in 2024, they are on the cusp of greatness. The Bengals narrowly lost the Super Bowl in 2021 and pushed the Chiefs to their limits in the 2022 AFC Championship game. While navigating a competitive division with the Ravens and contending against the Bills and Chiefs in the stronger conference, the Bengals possess considerable top-tier talent and experience in high-stakes games, enhancing their chances for a breakthrough this year. Likelihood of success: 8%.

The Detroit Lions lead the NFC in several critical performance metrics, including finishing the 2024 season with a 15-2 record, a scoring margin of plus-222, and an impressive DVOA of 34.8%. With a healthy Aidan Hutchinson returning in 2025, expectations remain high for this squad. However, Detroit is projected to face the NFL's third-most challenging schedule, competing in one of the toughest divisions. The question remains as to how much internal competition will impact their performance. Additionally, they are likely to encounter the defending champion Eagles, which poses another significant challenge. Despite the depth of talent on their roster, the Lions’ previous postseason struggles raise concerns about their potential to capitalize when it matters. Likelihood of success: 6%.

The Los Angeles Chargers enter the season with considerable potential, particularly if head coach Jim Harbaugh can elevate their play while quarterback Justin Herbert continues his development. After winning 11 games in the previous season with Herbert enjoying a career year and the team benefiting from the league's top-rated scoring defense, there is optimism for a bright future. However, the Chargers had a relatively favorable schedule in 2024, and entering Harbaugh's second season, teams are expected to better strategize against them. Competing within a division that includes the upward-trending Denver Broncos adds another layer of uncertainty. While the team's prospects are intriguing, caution is warranted. Likelihood of success: 3%.

For the Houston Texans, much hinges on quarterback C.J. Stroud recreating the form he displayed during his impressive rookie season in 2023. However, concerns arise given Stroud's performance behind a struggling offensive line in 2024. Although the Texans have made adjustments to strengthen their offensive front this offseason, it is uncertain whether these changes will yield immediate benefits, especially with the departure of veteran left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Trusting this squad becomes challenging, particularly with a tough schedule ahead, despite having talent that suggests a ceiling worthy of Super Bowl contention. Their path to playoff success appears fraught with complications. Likelihood of success: 2%.

The Jacksonville Jaguars experienced difficulties during the 2024 season, yet they managed to maintain winning records in the previous two years, instilling hope for a rebound in 2025. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence possesses ample ability, and with the arrival of No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter complementing Brian Thomas Jr. in the receiving corps, prospects look promising. Their schedule is favorable, and being in a weaker division may offer the Jags new opportunities, particularly with a refreshed coaching staff. However, following a tough campaign that saw them lose 13 games last year, projecting them into Super Bowl contention seems ambitious. Likelihood of success: 2%.

In Arizona, the performance of quarterback Kyler Murray alongside wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. will be critical in the team's trajectory. Both athletes have the potential to be impactful, but the Cardinals are in the midst of a rebuild. The NFC West has become increasingly competitive, opening possibilities for success. There is room for growth as they build toward future success, making them candidates for improvement but similar to both Houston and Jacksonville in terms of uncertainty. Likelihood of success: 2%.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is technically not a rookie, but he enters 2025 effectively as one due to missing the entire 2024 season with a knee injury. While the Vikings have a talented roster and strengths within their division, expectations must be tempered until McCarthy can prove his abilities on the field. A first Super Bowl appearance remains elusive, with a more promising window anticipated in 2026. Likelihood of success: 2%.

Michael Penix Jr., though he has played less, is similarly positioned to make an impact in Atlanta. Surrounded by talent at skill positions and a strong offensive line, he presents potential. With an improved defense, Atlanta can expect some advantages given an easier schedule and a wide-open division. However, significant questions linger about reaching elite performance levels this year, making playoff aspirations more realistic than immediate Super Bowl pursuits. Likelihood of success: 1%.

Lastly, the Carolina Panthers are undergoing a rebuilding phase, led by prospective franchise quarterback Bryce Young. Despite being the 2023 No. 1 overall pick, Young has yet to establish himself solidly as a reliable starter, compounded by a defense that surrendered the highest points per game last season. Their trajectory appears geared more towards future contention rather than immediate success in 2025. Likelihood of success: <1%.

The Tennessee Titans, similarly on a rebuilding path, have high hopes for their rookie No. 1 overall pick, quarterback Cam Ward. Nevertheless, after a season marked by 14 losses, the current focus is on securing a more respectable standing before aiming for contention, likely in 2026 or 2027. Likelihood of success: <1%.

For the Cleveland Browns, the prospects for the upcoming season seem bleak, as they are set to extend their championship drought to 60 years in the Super Bowl era, including a stretch of inactivity between 1996 and 1998. With a dismal 3-14 record last season and the worst scoring margin in the league, unresolved quarterback issues further complicate their standing—especially in one of football's most competitive divisions. Likelihood of success: <1%.