The NHL Draft annually presents all 32 teams with the chance to select emerging talent from both North American and international hockey circuits. The process for determining which club gets the first-overall pick is based on the overall standings coupled with the results of the annual draft lottery. Players chosen first overall instantly become the center of significant attention from both hockey enthusiasts and media outlets, generating high expectations as they aspire to fulfill their projected potential as future superstars. Matthew Schaefer is the name that has emerged as the latest first-overall selection, as he was picked on June 28 by the New York Islanders. Schaefer, a 17-year-old defenseman from the Erie Otters of the Ontario Hockey League, now finds himself subjected to the same scrutiny faced by those before him since the draft was established in 1963.

Historically, a majority of first-overall picks have carved out careers within the NHL. The trajectories of these athletes have varied dramatically, with a select few ascending to become prominent figures and Hall of Famers, while others have struggled to live up to expectations. This trend has remained consistent for players selected first overall since 2010; with only one of these individuals not still participating in the NHL today. Some players have emerged as renowned superstars, while others have yet to realize their full potential. This article offers a retrospective look at every first-overall NHL selection from the past 15 years, evaluating their achievements and speculating on future developments.

Taylor Hall, the first of three consecutive first-overall selections by the Edmonton Oilers from 2010 to 2012, has experienced a rollercoaster career over his 15 seasons in the NHL. Drafted for his left-wing capabilities, Hall spent his formative years with the Oilers, highlighted by an impressive 80-point season in 2013-14, yet never completely established himself as a scoring phenomenon. After being traded to the New Jersey Devils on June 29, 2016, Hall silenced critics with a career-best performance of 93 points during the 2017-18 season, leading the rebuilding Devils to the playoffs. His efforts earned him the Hart Memorial Trophy and a spot on the First All-Star Team. However, a string of injuries have disrupted Hall's consistency, resulting in frequent transitions across the league since the 2019-20 season. Post-Oilers, he has played for the Devils, Arizona Coyotes, Buffalo Sabres, Boston Bruins, and Chicago Blackhawks, and currently serves as a second-line winger for the Carolina Hurricanes.

Over 909 NHL regular-season games, the 33-year-old Hall has amassed 284 goals and 455 assists, totaling 739 points, along with a playoff record of 16 goals and 19 assists in 54 appearances. Although Hall's NHL journey showcases a respectable career highlighted by his standout season in 2017-18, injuries and inconsistency have prevented him from recapturing his peak performance. While he may not be classified as a bust, his Hart Trophy experience casts a shadow over potential unrealized career heights.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the second of Edmonton's trio of first-overall selections, has navigated his own path through the ups and downs of the franchise's struggles, famously dubbed the 'Decade of Darkness' from 2006-07 to 2015-16, to competing in back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals in 2024 and 2025. While not emerging as a superstar, Nugent-Hopkins has proven to be a reliable middle-six forward. He showcases his versatility as a two-way player, capable of skating at both center and wing. In 959 regular-season games, he has recorded 271 goals and 477 assists, resulting in 748 total points, along with 81 points accumulated in 96 playoff games. Six of his seasons have yielded 50 or more points, with a peak performance of 104 points in the 2022-23 campaign. Nugent-Hopkins has consistently performed in the 50-60 points range in his best seasons. He received accolades as a member of the All-Rookie Team in 2011-12 and was a Calder Memorial Trophy finalist.

Signed through the 2028-29 season with a complete no-movement clause, the 32-year-old Nugent-Hopkins is set to likely conclude his career as an Oiler. While he is nearing the age when performance may decline, his well-rounded skill set should allow him to contribute effectively for the Oilers moving forward. Since being selected first overall 14 years ago, Nugent-Hopkins has ingrained himself in the organization as a core player, reflecting a positive outcome for the franchise.

The third and final first-overall selection for the Oilers during the early 2010s, right wing Nail Yakupov was widely regarded as the top prospect in the 2012 NHL Draft by NHL Central Scouting. Yakupov was anticipated to become a game-changing scorer but ultimately did not deliver on that promise. He debuted during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season and led all rookies with 17 goals, tying Jonathan Huberdeau for the most points at 31. However, this marked the pinnacle of his NHL career. Labeled as a one-dimensional player, Yakupov showed limited willingness to enhance his all-around game. This lack of progression, coupled with only managing a maximum of 34 points per season during his tenure in Edmonton, became detrimental to his career. Subsequently traded to the St. Louis Blues in 2016, Yakupov only managed nine points in 40 games. A brief stint as a free-agent signing with the Colorado Avalanche garnered a meager 16 points in 58 outings. Since 2018-19, he has played in the Kontinental Hockey League in Russia and is often regarded as one of the least successful first-overall selections in NHL history, with a total of 136 points in 350 games.

The Colorado Avalanche made a significant selection when they chose Nathan MacKinnon with the first-overall pick in the 2013 NHL Draft. Recognized as the second-best North American skater by NHL Central Scouting, MacKinnon has emerged as one of the franchise's premier stars. He won the Calder Memorial Trophy in the 2013-14 season with 63 points but faced challenges during the following three seasons as the team struggled to reach the playoffs. The 2017-18 season marked a pivotal moment in MacKinnon’s career, as he surpassed 90 points for the first of three consecutive seasons. An injury during the 2021-22 season limited him to 88 points across 65 games, but he played a vital role in the Avalanche's Stanley Cup championship run that spring.

Since the 2022-23 season, MacKinnon has consistently performed as one of the league's elite players, reaching or surpassing 111 points each season, with a remarkable 140-point performance in 2023-24 that secured him both the Hart Memorial Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award. Additionally, he has been honored with selection to the First All-Star Team twice. Approaching his 30th birthday on September 1, he remains in the prime of his career, ranking third in NHL scoring with 809 points since his breakthrough in 2017-18. MacKinnon has also set the single-season points record for the Avalanche and sits third for all-time points in the franchise.

Aaron Ekblad was selected first overall by the Florida Panthers in the 2014 NHL Draft after being ranked second among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting. Ekblad has since solidified himself as a cornerstone of the Panthers' defense. Over an 11-season tenure, he has garnered the Calder Memorial Trophy in 2014-15 and has become the team’s mainstay on the blue line. His contributions were instrumental in the Panthers' transition from perennial underperformance to back-to-back Stanley Cup champions. As a well-rounded defenseman, Ekblad ranks second in club history with 732 games played, third in assists with 262, and fifth in overall points with 380. While injuries have hindered his output in recent years, Ekblad, when at full health, continues to embody a reliable defensive presence within the Panthers' lineup.

Despite not ascending to the ranks of elite defensemen nor achieving individual accolades like contemporaries Leon Draisaitl and David Pastrňák from the 2014 draft, his significance to the Panthers merits recognition as a worthwhile first-overall selection. Now under an eight-year contract, the 29-year-old Ekblad seems poised to potentially finish his career with the Panthers. Concerns linger regarding the viability of this deal in light of his recent injury history, yet it underscores his enduring importance as the organization aims to remain competitive.

Connor McDavid, the fourth first-overall pick in six years for the Oilers, has been heralded as a potential NHL superstar on par with hall-of-fame legends Sidney Crosby, Mario Lemieux, and Wayne Gretzky, and he has undeniably met those lofty expectations. Serving as the face of the Oilers, McDavid ranks second to Gretzky in the club’s all-time scoring list, with 721 assists and 1,082 total points. During the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, he shattered Gretzky's record for most assists in a single postseason, finishing with 34 and earning the Conn Smythe Trophy. His remarkable collection of individual accolades includes five Art Ross Trophies, four Ted Lindsay Awards, three Hart Memorial Trophies, and the Maurice Richard Trophy in the 2022-23 season. McDavid epitomizes the type of dominating star that fans envision in a first-overall selection, reshaping the trajectory of the Oilers from their past adversities into a franchise consistently contending for the Stanley Cup.

Recognized as one of the all-time greats in NHL history, McDavid stands out as the premier player selected first overall since 2010. At 28 years old, he remains at the apex of his abilities and is anticipated to maintain his status as the central figure in the league for the foreseeable future.

Auston Matthews, selected first overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2016, has cemented his legacy as the era's most prolific goal scorer. Scoring 40 goals in his rookie year (2016-17), Matthews was awarded the Calder Memorial Trophy. Alongside fellow budding stars Mitch Marner and William Nylander, Matthews propelled the Leafs into the playoffs that season, marking the commencement of a nine-season postseason streak for the franchise. Evolving into a league-wide superstar, he broke the 40-goal threshold five times between 2019-20 and 2023-24, including a career-high 60 goals in the 2021-22 season and an incredible 69 in 2023-24. Completing the exclusive club alongside Alex Ovechkin, he has claimed the Maurice Richard Trophy at least three times and has garnered both the Hart Memorial Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award during the 2021-22 season while also holding the franchise record for goals in a season.

As the captain of the Maple Leafs, Matthews shoulders mounting pressure from fans eager to witness the club win its first Stanley Cup since 1967. Despite the team having reached the second round only twice since 2017, Matthews remains a pivotal presence that grants them their best chance at breaking the extended championship drought.

Drafted by the New Jersey Devils as the first of two first-overall picks over three years, Nico Hischier has developed into a significant leader and one of the top two-way forwards in the league through his eight NHL seasons. After a promising rookie year in 2017-18, centered around 20 goals and 52 points across 82 games, Hischier faced challenges due to injuries and inconsistent play over the next three years. However, by the 2021-22 season, he began solidifying his reputation as a solid two-way center, managing to match or exceed 60 points in each of the following seasons, including a career-high 80-point performance in 2022-23, which helped propel the Devils to a franchise-record 112-point season. Serving as captain since the 2021-22 campaign, Hischier's importance to the organization has only grown, and his two-way play is increasingly recognized.

His efforts secured him a runner-up position for the Frank J. Selke Trophy following the 2022-23 season, and he remained a contender in the voting for 2024-25. The Devils have reached the playoffs in two of the last three seasons, with Hischier's leadership and skills poised to play a key role in guiding them toward becoming a formidable Stanley Cup contender.

The Buffalo Sabres have endured a challenging 15-year period, marked by an NHL-record 14 consecutive years of playoff absence since 2011-12. In efforts to turn the franchise around, they selected Rasmus Dahlin first overall in 2018. Dahlin has matured into an elite defenseman across his seven NHL seasons, earning a nomination for the Calder Memorial Trophy during his rookie year after posting 44 points in 2018-19. Throughout the subsequent six seasons, he exceeded the 40-point barrier five times, achieving a career-best 73 points in 2022-23 and 68 points in 2024-25. The Sabres appointed Dahlin as team captain in 2024-25, underlining his development and commitment as both a leader and contributor on ice.

At 25 years old and entering his prime, Dahlin has established himself as a top-tier puck-moving defenseman. His growth signifies that he has validated his selection as a first-overall pick, presenting an opportunity for brighter days ahead as he aims to lead his team into playoff contention.

The New Jersey Devils once again made a first-overall selection, opting for center Jack Hughes, the top prospect according to NHL Central Scouting in 2019. This electrifying and highly skilled forward has risen to prominence as the Devils' offensive driver. An initial struggle defined his first three seasons, producing only 21 points as a rookie and 31 during the abbreviated 2020-21 season, further compounded by injuries that reduced his effectiveness. Hughes garnered 26 goals and 59 points in 49 games during the 2021-22 season, but it was the 2022-23 season where he truly shined, achieving 43 goals and 56 assists for 99 points over 78 games while capturing the Lady Byng Memorial Trophy finalist honor. Unfortunately, Hughes has encountered injury setbacks over the past two years, limiting his 2023-24 contributions to 27 goals and 74 points across 62 games as the Devils missed the playoffs.

In the 2024-25 season, Hughes recorded 70 points in 62 games before succumbing to a season-ending shoulder injury. When available, his skill set exemplifies the caliber of an NHL superstar, and his absence is felt by the Devils, emphasizing the impact he has on team success. As he works to avoid further serious injuries, Hughes harbors the potential to lead the franchise into a successful Stanley Cup pursuit.

Alexis Lafrenière, recognized as the leading North American prospect in NHL Central Scouting's final 2020 rankings, was selected first overall by the New York Rangers. Known for his competitive nature and skillset, he entered the NHL with lofty expectations but has faced challenges in realizing his full potential. Although Lafrenière made his debut amid the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season, he has navigated persistent difficulties that have prevented him from securing his natural left-wing position due to depth crowding. Having demonstrated a steady upward trajectory over his initial three seasons, he seemed on the verge of a breakthrough following a commendable 28-goal, 57-point season in 2023-24 and a strong playoff outing with eight goals and 14 points in 16 games.

Following this promising effort, the Rangers rewarded Lafrenière with a seven-year contract worth an average annual value of $7.5 million. However, he experienced a regression last season, finishing with 45 points, and subsequently became a frequent topic of trade discussions. Despite his less-than-stellar progress, it is premature to label Lafrenière a bust; the 23-year-old still has ample opportunity to advance his game, provided he finds stability within the Rangers' top six forward group.

After the selection of Rasmus Dahlin in 2018, the Sabres opted once again for a defenseman by selecting Owen Power with the top pick in the 2021 draft. Recognized as the top prospect among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting, Power’s formidable 6'6” stature, agile skating, and strong hockey intuition made him a desirable first-overall selection. Power recorded 35 points during his first full NHL season (2022-23), followed by 33 points as a sophomore and 40 points in the following season. At merely 22 years of age, he possesses both the time and potential to emerge as a reliable top-pairing defenseman. His efforts have not gone unnoticed, with coach Lindy Ruff and teammates praising his work ethic and continued improvement.

However, Ruff has noted that Power's development requires bolstering his physicality and enhancing his defensive game to perform optimally in high-stakes situations. To aid his growth, the Sabres recently acquired veteran defenseman Michael Kesselring from the Utah Mammoth, who is expected to complement Power as a right-shot defenseman. This partnership could accelerate Power's development as he continuously seeks to improve.

The Montreal Canadiens, approaching the 2022 NHL Draft, were widely anticipated to select promising two-way center Shane Wright from the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs with the first-overall pick. Instead, they surprised many by choosing the towering winger Juraj Slafkovský, ranked as the premier international player by NHL Central Scouting. With his powerful frame and a standout MVP performance at the 2022 Winter Olympics, Slafkovský emerged as a player projected to make an impact. He made his NHL debut in the 2022-23 season, securing 10 points in 39 games before a knee injury ended his campaign prematurely. Over the ensuing two seasons, Slafkovský has showcased flashes of potential despite inconsistency.

He displayed marked improvement during the latter halves of his initial two seasons, concluding his sophomore year with 20 goals and 50 points before totaling 51 points last season. Slafkovský's substantial frame (6'3” and 225 pounds) offers him the physical attributes to become an imposing power forward in the NHL. Entering his fourth NHL season while still young, he is considered a work in progress. Recent developments show that Slafkovský has been able to utilize his size more effectively, capitalizing on puck battles. Furthermore, he has benefited from exposure to playing on the Canadiens' top line alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. As Slafkovský continues to refine his game, observers remain hopeful for a breakthrough in his development.

The Chicago Blackhawks were faced with immense anticipation ahead of the 2023 NHL Draft, ultimately selecting Connor Bedard with the first-overall pick. A generational talent, Bedard showcased extraordinary skills in the CHL and dominated during the 2023 World Juniors, earning widespread acclaim. Described by scouts as possessing elite attributes, he made history by becoming the top scorer, top prospect, and player of the year in his draft class, mirroring the hype surrounding previous first-overall selections.

Bedard quickly made his mark within the Blackhawks organization, winning the Calder Memorial Trophy after leading all NHL rookies with 61 points despite missing 14 games due to a fractured jaw. However, his sophomore season yielded mixed results, as he again led the team with 67 points, but his overarching performance did not meet initial expectations due in part to the limited supporting cast surrounding him. Now 20 years old, Bedard enters his third NHL season with elevated expectations amidst the continued rebuild for the Blackhawks. He will need to elevate his production offensively to facilitate improvement for his team, and how he performs in the upcoming season is crucial for both his personal trajectory and the team's future.

Lastly, the San Jose Sharks celebrated a franchise milestone by selecting Macklin Celebrini first overall in 2024, marking their inaugural selection of that stature. Celebrini, who emerged as the top North American skater, captured the Hobey Baker Memorial Award as the premier NCAA hockey player that year. Scouts have acknowledged his ability to thrive in diverse situations, displaying commendable two-way skills and a commitment to rising to challenges.

Despite missing 12 games early last season due to a hip injury, Celebrini quickly demonstrated his potential and leadership by leading the rebuilding Sharks with a total of 63 points, finishing third among rookie scorers and consequently earning a spot as a finalist for the Calder Memorial Trophy. With an eye toward the future, the 19-year-old embarks on his sophomore season in 2025-26 while likely facing heightened scrutiny from rival teams as they look to neutralize his impact. Celebrini is viewed as a foundational piece of the Sharks' rebuilding efforts. If he manages to effectively navigate the sophomore year while building on his prior performance, he could significantly contribute to the organization's progress as they seek to ascend the ranks of the league.