Early Predictions for the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline
Major League Baseball has yet to officially announce the date for the 2025 trade deadline, but it is likely to fall on July 31, which is a Thursday this year. As the season approaches, the identities of potential buyers and sellers remain uncertain. Last season, for example, the Milwaukee Brewers were believed to be in a selling position, only to exceed expectations by winning 93 games and securing the NL Central title. While it is possible to make some early predictions regarding the teams likely to buy or sell, the landscape will not solidify until later in the season.
The St. Louis Cardinals have recognized a shift in strategy for the 2025 season, opting to take a step back. This development raises questions about their decision to retain All-Star closer Ryan Helsley, who, at 30 years old, continues to impress with his pitching velocity exceeding 100 mph. Helsley will be a free agent after the 2025 season, making him a logical candidate for a trade if the Cardinals do not intend to compete this year. Although Helsley recently earned the Trevor Hoffman Award for the best reliever in the National League, the Cardinals may gauge the situation through the first half of the season before making any decisions regarding his future, especially given the competitiveness of the NL Central.
In another situation, the Texas Rangers experienced disappointment in 2024 after winning the World Series in 2023. With the AL West appearing weaker, the Rangers are poised for a rebound in 2025, contingent on the health of two-time NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom. As of now, the Rangers have not re-signed their top relievers from last season, Kirby Yates and David Robertson, or retained World Series hero José Leclerc, who signed with the rival Athletics. This lack of high-leverage relief options may necessitate acquisitions should the Rangers find themselves in contention at the trade deadline. Other teams, such as the Baltimore Orioles and Arizona Diamondbacks, could also be potential landing spots for Helsley if he becomes available.
The Toronto Blue Jays may either secure a long-term extension with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before the start of the season or opt to let him play out his final year, potentially offering him a qualifying offer afterward. The strategy surrounding Guerrero's future decision-making will be crucial, especially as the Blue Jays aim to compete in 2025 after finishing last in the AL East in 2024. Despite additions like Anthony Santander, Jeff Hoffman, and Andrés Giménez, these players might not be sufficient to overcome the challenges posed by a competitive division. Bo Bichette has expressed interest in remaining with the Blue Jays long-term, but speculation surrounding his future has intensified, with reports suggesting he may not have intentions to return. Should Bichette's value increase, it could lead the Blue Jays to trade him this summer instead of losing him to free agency without compensation.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves are entering the 2025 season with Orlando Arcia positioned as their shortstop. While Arcia is regarded as a capable defender, his performance last year was lackluster, leading to questions about potential upgrades at the position. If Bo Bichette showcases strong performance early in the season, he could become an enticing option for the Braves, whether as a long-term asset or a short-term acquisition. Historically, the Los Angeles Dodgers have shown a knack for acquiring players they target, and Bichette may be on their radar as well.
As for the Miami Marlins, Sandy Alcántara is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Given that he underwent the procedure in October 2023, he is expected to be ready for Opening Day in 2025. The Marlins previously indicated they would keep Alcántara in the offseason, but as his trade value rebounds, the organization might entertain offers, particularly given his impressive track record prior to injury. Alcántara's contract, which remains team-friendly, could allow for interest from multiple contenders, including the San Diego Padres, who may seek a strong pitching option in light of roster changes.
In the American League, the Tampa Bay Rays have decided to retain Yandy Díaz for the start of the 2025 season. Nevertheless, challenges are evident as the team will play its home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field due to the destruction of Tropicana Field by Hurricane Milton. This situation may lead to selling assets at the trade deadline if the Rays struggle. Díaz, a proven offensive asset, would attract interest from teams looking to strengthen their first base position, particularly if the Cincinnati Reds seek to make improvements after a disappointing season.
The Philadelphia Phillies have historically searched for right-handed hitting power to balance their predominantly left-handed lineup. After pursuing Austin Hays unsuccessfully last summer, they signed Max Kepler this offseason, hoping for a resurgence from the former Minnesota Twin. However, the need for a right-handed bat remains pressing as they face off against left-handed pitching, necessitating an addition like Taylor Ward from the Angels. Ward's performance against left-handed pitching could provide the platoon support necessary for the Phillies to compete effectively.
Lastly, the Kansas City Royals may consider a trade for outfield assistance, particularly after recently acquiring Lucas Erceg from the Athletics. With the Royals lacking offensive firepower in the corner outfield positions, they may seek to bolster their lineup by exploring options such as acquiring JJ Bleday, a player who excelled with the Athletics in 2024 and could seamlessly transition to a full-time left field role.