Introduction

As Major League Baseball anticipates the signing of contracts worth hundreds of millions for superstars like Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette, the focus shifts to existing megadeals that could become nightmares in the coming seasons. With various players already scheduled to receive at least $100 million after 2028, there is a stark contrast between those expected to thrive and those deemed potentially burdensome over time. This article explores the contracts that are currently in play, shedding light on their implications and the likelihood of them turning sour.

Evaluating the Top Contracts Set to Expire

As the league prepares for a busy contract renewal season, let’s take a closer look at the players whose hefty contracts might become problematic in three seasons from now. According to Spotrac contract data, it’s crucial to separate cash owed from various counts of salaries and luxury taxes. Here’s how some of baseball's top earners stack up:

Young Stars with Hefty Future Paychecks

Among the rising stars, players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto have eye-watering commitments. Guerrero, 26, faces at least $419 million scheduled from 2028 to 2039, undoubtedly making him a cornerstone of any long-term strategy. Soto, aged 27, is owed a staggering $553.75 million under a similarly structured contract.

Other notable young players include Jackson Merrill (22), who will earn a minimum of $118 million, and Julio Rodríguez (25), who will see an $18 million payout in 2028 before a possible $240 million extension kicks in from 2030. With their ages and potentials, these players are likely to justify their contracts, provided they maintain their performance levels.

The Injury Risk Factor

While many of these young stars are poised for greatness, the history of injuries looms large over the contracts of players like Garrett Crochet and Fernando Tatis Jr.. Crochet, at 26, has an obligation of $114 million through 2031, which becomes risky given his injury history. On the other hand, Tatis Jr.’s $241 million due until 2034 could suffer if injuries derail his trajectory.

Veteran Players Facing Contractual Consequences

As we dive deeper into the contracts of veteran players, the situation gets murkier. Mookie Betts, now 33, will earn $115 million through 2032, followed by a staggering $120 million in deferred payments lasting into his 50s. Likewise, Shohei Ohtani, despite his extraordinary ability, has a potential obligation exceeding $680 million stretching well into his 40s, which may not be sustainable as he ages.

Veteran contracts such as those of Mike Trout and Corey Seager also raise alarms. Trout, at nearly 37, will still be paid over $100 million while he struggles with his aging performance metrics. Seager, albeit slightly younger, is at risk of declining production due to his injury history, paired with a strong aging signal for shortstops generally.

Current Stars on the Decline

Some contracts are already beginning to look unfavorable. Xander Bogaerts, who once dazzled with a .300 batting average, has severely declined to a .263 slugging in the past seasons. His continuing contract obligations could make him a liability, particularly contrasted with his earlier performances.

Similarly, Manny Machado's excellent hitting is marred by defensive struggles, with declining fielding metrics putting his $40 million per year contract at risk as he turns 35.

Conclusion: A Look Ahead to 2028

As the landscape of Major League Baseball continues to evolve, teams face tough decisions in navigating these complex contracts. The potential pitfalls are pronounced for veterans nearing the end of their career expectancy, while young stars with massive financial commitments hold the fate of franchises in their hands. The next few years will reveal how well teams like the Yankees and Dodgers manage their strategies with aging talent and burgeoning contracts.

As the dust settles from the recent signing frenzy, only time will tell which mega contracts will transform into financial burdens. Fans and analysts alike will be keeping a close eye on the outcomes of such hefty investments.