Shopping at the upper echelons of the Major League Baseball (MLB) free-agent market can be likened to purchasing a box of chocolates priced at $1 million—expensive and unpredictable. This article examines ten free agents whose potential outcomes are nearly as uncertain as they are promising. Based on various projections, including those from Moneyline's Tim Kelly, each player in this analysis is likely to secure a multiyear contract that pays out in eight figures annually. While each player has earned the financial reward, they also come with a host of questions surrounding their futures. Notably absent from this discussion are Juan Soto, Willy Adames, Alex Bregman, Max Fried, and Blake Snell—players who, despite their high costs, appear safer bets in the current free-agent landscape.

Among the notable free agents, Nick Pivetta, at age 31, had a mixed season in 2024, with stats including 26 games started, 145.2 innings pitched, and a 4.14 ERA. While analysts like Kelly express skepticism about Pivetta's future, outlets such as FanGraphs and ESPN's Jeff Passan project a possible three-year contract for the right-handed pitcher. Pivetta's ability to strike out batters—averaging 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings—and his impressive ranking in Stuff+ suggest that he possesses the pitch quality required for success. However, his susceptibility to home runs poses a significant risk, as he averaged over 1.3 homers per nine innings throughout his career.

Another intriguing case is Gleyber Torres, 27, who recorded 154 games played in 2024 with 15 home runs, a .257 batting average, and a .330 on-base percentage. While Tim Kelly forecasts a one-year contract, other sources project a multiyear deal for Torres due to the possibility of him thriving with a change of scenery. His performance as the Yankees' leadoff hitter in the latter part of the 2024 season was notably effective, with a .313 batting average and an .840 OPS following his move to the top of the lineup. Yet, questions loom regarding his power and overall ability, particularly given his declining hard-hit percentage and shorter fly balls compared to his earlier career levels.

Tyler O'Neill, 29, boasts impressive power metrics, having 31 home runs and a .511 slugging percentage in 2024. His isolated power ranked him among the best in the league, and he was particularly effective at generating hard contact. Despite his potential, O'Neill's injury history and tendency to experience long slumps could deter teams from committing long-term to him. He recorded a striking 30.8% strikeout rate in his career, indicating a knowledge of the plate that may be inconsistent at best.

At age 31, Jurickson Profar experienced a remarkable resurgence, improving his exit velocity and hard-hit rate significantly compared to previous seasons. His 2024 statistics—alongside a 2-year, $34 million contract prediction—reflect his successful offensive contributions. Nonetheless, analysts caution against viewing Profar's season as a new norm, citing the potential for regression in his overall performance metrics and defensive inefficiencies.

Luis Severino, 30, presents a compelling case for teams seeking revitalized pitching talent. Following a change in pitching strategy, Severino improved his ability to induce ground balls and limit hard contact during the 2024 season, leading to a 3.91 ERA across 182.0 innings. However, questions regarding his durability remain, as Severino has experienced injury setbacks in recent years. His continued challenges with left-handed batters could also raise concerns for teams considering a substantial investment in him.

Nathan Eovaldi, a veteran at age 34, has established himself as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, maintaining an average fastball velocity above 95 mph. With a solid postseason track record, Eovaldi’s command and ability to limit walks remain attractive qualities. Conversely, the history of two Tommy John surgeries raises concerns about his long-term viability as he transitions into his mid-30s, and his pitch quality appears to be in decline.

Jack Flaherty, 29, is projected for a significant payday based on his top-tier pitching performance in 2024, including a 3.17 ERA across 162 innings. Analysts view him as a candidate for a lucrative contract in excess of $60 million, especially given his past accolades and a promising resurgence to form. Nevertheless, lingering questions about the sustainability of his improved performance metrics could lead to variability in contractual outcomes.

Anthony Santander, aged 30, emerged as a powerful offensive player in 2024, hitting 44 home runs. His balance as a switch-hitter, coupled with favorable on-base statistics, positions him as a significant free-agent target. However, concerns about the volatility in his performance—a notable discrepancy between Statcast estimates of his power output and his historical stats—could deter teams from providing guaranteed long-term commitments.

Pete Alonso, 29, is undeniably one of the league's premier sluggers, having hit 34 home runs during the 2024 season, maintaining a strong offensive presence with a career home run record second only to Aaron Judge. Alonso's combination of power and durability positions him favorably in the free-agent market. However, potential buyers may be wary of his regression during the past season, with shifts in his offensive approach raising alarms as he approaches the critical age threshold for first basemen.

Corbin Burnes, 30, shines as one of the most sought-after free agents after a stellar 2024 season with a 2.92 ERA over 32 games started. Despite a strikeout rate drop, Burnes has adeptly adjusted his pitch strategy to induce weak contact, making him a strong candidate for a significant long-term deal. While his past accolades may bolster his market, cautious evaluation of his current form compared to peak performance will likely shape the decisions made by interested teams.