Analyzing the Trade Value of Paul Skenes Amid Pirates Struggles

Despite being just over a year removed from his MLB debut, Paul Skenes has already generated trade discussions within the league. This phenomenon highlights the challenging situation of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who currently sit at 16-33, languishing at the bottom of the National League Central. The team faces an uphill battle to reach the playoffs, having last qualified in 2016 and only achieving postseason appearances three times since 1992. While the Pirates may contemplate signing Skenes to a contract extension, skepticism surrounds this prospect, given the franchise's reputation for frugality. ESPN's Jeff Passan recently noted that Skenes, who is only 22 years old, is viewed as a potential candidate for a $400 million contract, indicating his immense value in the current market.
Passan mentioned on The Pat McAfee Show that several teams are expected to inquire about Skenes during the upcoming trade deadline, though a trade seems unlikely at this point. His standout performance, evidenced by a remarkable 2.12 ERA—the lowest for a pitcher through 33 starts since the official ERA era began in 1912—underscores his substantial trade value. Additionally, Skenes will turn 23 on May 29, with arbitration not coming until 2027 and free agency following in 2029. The current landscape of MLB starting pitching has its challenges, adding to Skenes' appeal as a rarity, leading to an estimated surplus value of $94.8 million according to Baseball Trade Values. If the Pirates consider a trade, it would have to be for an offer that would be hard to turn down, allowing them to potentially maximize Skenes' value.
Speculation regarding potential suitors for Skenes is warranted, particularly considering teams that could provide attractive trade packages. First, two prospects-rich teams in the American League Central, the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins, currently aim for the division title while needing upgrades in their rotations. However, their cautious history in trade negotiations may weaken their viability as a trading partner. The New York Mets and New York Yankees are also contenders, but both lack elite prospects to offer—George Lombard Jr., ranked No. 44, is currently the highest on MLB Pipeline's list. The Texas Rangers, with one of the top-ranked farm systems, could potentially trade pitchers to replace Skenes, although two of their top arms, Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, currently face injuries. Other franchises, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, and Boston Red Sox, all possess intriguing trade possibilities, possibly exchanging various prospects for Skenes' exceptional talent in hopes of strengthening their own rotations.








