Analyzing Last Shot Scenarios for NBA Teams

Analytics have significantly influenced the modern NBA, enhancing the research and understanding of the game. However, as the shot clock winds down, every team still needs a designated player capable of scoring when it matters most. Identifying such players on each team can be complex, especially with numerous team changes occurring in the 2025 offseason. The discussion centers on whether Luka Dončić has established himself in this role with the Los Angeles Lakers or if LeBron James' extensive experience remains paramount. Additionally, as Kyrie Irving recovers from a torn ACL, the question arises whether Anthony Davis or rookie Cooper Flagg will take the last shot. The need for reliable clutch scorers is pertinent across the league, raising the question of who will step up when the game is on the line for each team.
The Atlanta Hawks, ranked first in fourth-quarter points per game at 7.1, have made considerable improvements during the 2025 offseason with the additions of Kristaps Porziņģis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Jalen Johnson’s recovery from shoulder surgery and Zaccharie Risacher’s strong rookie performance add depth. Nonetheless, Trae Young remains the primary candidate for late-game scoring opportunities, having averaged 7.1 points per game in the fourth quarter, outpacing notable players such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Stephen Curry. While Young's shooting percentage in critical moments was not the highest, he remains the most reliable option for Atlanta.
The Boston Celtics face a changed landscape following Jayson Tatum's likely absence for the entire 2025-26 season due to a torn Achilles. With the departures of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis, and Al Horford anticipated to follow suit, the Celtics have diminished resources for late-game scoring. Jaylen Brown is now positioned as the leading option, having averaged 5.4 points per game in the fourth quarter last season, eclipsing Tatum’s previous contributions. Derrick White, with a solid 4.9 points per game in the fourth quarter, alongside Payton Pritchard for long-range attempts, rounds out the scoring options for Boston.
The Brooklyn Nets' situation is evolving, particularly with Cam Thomas, who is expected to remain in the organization amidst a restricted free agency. Michael Porter Jr. is also in the mix, despite the overall limited options in Brooklyn. Porter is likely to be aggressive in seeking scoring opportunities, but Thomas demonstrated superior skills in creating shots for himself during last season, where he averaged 7.8 fourth-quarter points per game, ranking him first in the league for usage rate in crunch time.
In the Charlotte Hornets' camp, LaMelo Ball leads the league in fourth-quarter scoring, making him the go-to player for crucial shots. Known for his confidence in taking shots regardless of circumstance, Ball's late-game performance is critical for Charlotte’s playoff aspirations. Averaging 5.5 points in the fourth quarter last season, his ability to convert in tough situations remains vital to the Hornets’ success.
The Chicago Bulls find themselves without a clear standout for late-game scenarios, though Coby White is poised to assume greater responsibility. Although a pass-first player, White has indicated a willingness to embrace crunch-time opportunities, supported by his efficiency at the free-throw line. The Bulls' overall limited late-game options could compel the team to rely on him in pressure situations.
For the Cleveland Cavaliers, three players could play pivotal roles in scoring late in games: Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, and Evan Mobley. With Mitchell ranking among the league's leading fourth-quarter scorers, his ability to perform under pressure will be crucial as the team aims for success in close contests.
Kyrie Irving’s absence due to injury creates a vacuum for scoring opportunities on the Dallas Mavericks. With Irving out for the foreseeable future, Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, and Klay Thompson will compete for the responsibility of making the final shot. Despite Davis being the likely candidate, Flagg’s emerging offensive skillset could present new options for Dallas in clutch moments.
In the Denver Nuggets’ setup, reliance on both Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray remains a strategic choice, as they frequently share fourth-quarter shot attempts. Despite Jokić not being a traditional go-to scorer, his efficiency places him among the most trusted players with the ball in late-game scenarios.
Cade Cunningham's role with the Detroit Pistons looks increasingly secure as he continues to develop, asserting his presence, especially following Jaden Ivey's injury. Cunningham's scoring ability, complemented by shooting improvements, positions him as Detroit's late-game focal point.
Even with Jimmy Butler on board, no one is usurping Stephen Curry's control at the end of games for the Golden State Warriors. Curry, despite facing age-related challenges, remains a significant threat in clutch situations, having secured numerous game-winning shots throughout his career.
The Houston Rockets face uncertainty regarding go-to scoring options following last season's playoff exit. Kevin Durant’s arrival is expected to solidify the Rockets' offensive structure, allowing him to exploit favorable late-game matchups.
The Indiana Pacers are feeling the impact of Tyrese Halliburton’s injury, increasing opportunities for Bennedict Mathurin, who led the team in fourth-quarter scoring last season. As Mathurin steps into a more prominent role, his development will be critical for Indiana.
Kawhi Leonard will be looking to take over leadership in late-game situations for the Los Angeles Clippers, especially following personnel changes that have shifted team dynamics. His ability to score in high-pressure scenarios should aid the Clippers in tight games.
In the Los Angeles Lakers' roster, LeBron James continues to assert his presence in the fourth quarter, taking on a significant role in late-game situations. However, Luka Dončić is expected to emerge as the primary fourth-quarter scorer, as both players navigate their dual responsibilities.
The Memphis Grizzlies require a healthy Ja Morant to maximize their closing potential in games. Morant’s remarkable scoring ability and playmaking skills have already proven crucial in late-game situations during his young career.
With Jimmy Butler departing, the Miami Heat will be searching for a new offensive leader. Tyler Herro is anticipated to rise as a primary scoring option, especially given the adjustments made over the offseason with incoming talent.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s role as the primary scorer in critical moments is cemented as the Milwaukee Bucks move forward without Damian Lillard. Antetokounmpo’s ability to finish through contact will remain a significant factor for Milwaukee.
Anthony Edwards established his place as a leading clutch scorer for the Minnesota Timberwolves, consistently facing double-teams in crucial moments. His versatility in scoring—both from the perimeter and in traffic—makes him a formidable late-game option.
Zion Williamson’s reputation as a tough matchup solidifies his role in late-game situations for the New Orleans Pelicans, further magnified by changes in team personnel and the need for reliable scoring.
Jalen Brunson emerged as the 2024-25 NBA Clutch Player of the Year, showcasing his proficiency in crunch-time performance. His scoring ability and strategic awareness make him a pivotal asset for the New York Knicks.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's fourth-quarter scoring, though second to Jalen Williams, is a testament to his efficiency and drive, even if the Oklahoma City Thunder often maintain comfortable leads late in games.
Paolo Banchero’s scoring abilities may get overshadowed, as he continues to share late-game duties with teammate Franz Wagner. As both players evolve, their roles will be monitored closely.
Tyrese Maxey has emerged as a key player for the Philadelphia 76ers, taking on the responsibility of being the top scoring option amid injuries to stars like Joel Embiid. His performance in late-game scenarios could prove crucial for Philadelphia's success.
Devin Booker will bear the burden of late-game scoring for the Phoenix Suns, especially following significant roster changes, marking him as the focal point amidst strategic shifts.
With various players vying for leadership roles in clutch scenarios, the Washington Wizards remain in a state of flux regarding who will step up during crucial moments this season.








