As the 2024-25 MLB offseason approaches, several teams are anticipated to make significant moves in the market. Notably, the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers will likely be a focal point, along with the New York Mets and New York Yankees. Furthermore, the San Diego Padres, under the direction of A.J. Preller, are expected to be active as well. However, the offseason landscape presents intriguing considerations for teams whose intentions remain unclear. This analysis highlights eight franchises that are particularly difficult to forecast, possessing the resources to potentially make impactful acquisitions, yet for various reasons, may not fully commit.
Beginning with the Baltimore Orioles, who finished the 2024 season with a record of 91-71, the projected payroll for 2025 stands at $96 million. This figure is significantly lower than the $164.3 million the team allocated in 2017, prior to the ownership transition to David Rubenstein, whose net worth is estimated at $4 billion. Given the Orioles' emergence as contenders in recent years, expectations may rise regarding their offseason spending. They could choose to retain star players such as ace right-hander Corbin Burnes and slugging right fielder Anthony Santander, or secure their core talents like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Jackson Holliday. With a wealth of prospects available, including corner infielder Coby Mayo and catcher Samuel Basallo, a blockbuster trade could also be on the horizon. Nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding the team's willingness to invest in high-profile contracts persists, particularly considering past comments from Rubenstein about the complexities of building a successful team beyond mere financial expenditure.
Turning to the Boston Red Sox, who posted an 81-81 record last season and have a projected payroll of $136 million for 2025, the team has previously ranked among the highest in MLB payrolls. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has expressed intentions to be decisive and aggressive in enhancing the roster. The Red Sox have a strong core of young players, and with a third-ranked farm system, they are poised to make significant improvements through trades and free agency. However, recent history raises questions about their commitment to large spending, evidenced by their conservative approach in last year's market. While there is optimism, the lingering doubt remains that the Red Sox of recent years may not return to their previous level of financial commitment.
The Chicago Cubs, finishing the 2024 season with an 83-79 record and a projected payroll of $193 million, find themselves in a position where they are not far from previous spending levels. With a record $214.4 million payroll this year and the likelihood of retaining Cody Bellinger, who opted into his contract, the Cubs also possess a strong farm system, ranking fourth in MLB. They could venture to make a significant signing or a trade for a high-impact player, such as Pete Alonso, who would greatly enhance their offensive capabilities. However, team ownership's past reluctance to exceed spending limits could temper expectations for a major offseason splash.
The Detroit Tigers ended the 2024 season with an 86-76 record and have a projected payroll of $79 million. Following a recent playoff appearance, the Tigers are anticipated to step back into the fray of significant offseason spending. President of baseball operations Scott Harris affirmed the team's readiness to pursue talent aggressively, indicating a shift in priorities. However, while they have the financial backing, their historical hesitance to exceed prior payrolls poses questions about their true intentions. The Tigers need to bolster their offense, perhaps seeking to extend contracts for key players like AL Cy Young Award contender Tarik Skubal, while also navigating the challenges posed by their home park's batting conditions.
Transitioning to the Houston Astros, who secured a playoff spot with an 88-73 record and a projected payroll of $220 million, expectations around the Astros lie in their need for judicious spending as they navigate a tight financial space. General manager Dana Brown has advised caution in balancing payroll while aiming for succession planning. The future of stars like Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman looms large, as extending one may involve sacrifice with the other. With the slowdown in sizable moves over the past season, the offseason prospects remain highly speculative, enveloped by the unpredictability associated with the Astros’ management strategies.
The San Francisco Giants, projected at a $155 million payroll for 2025 after a season ending with a 80-82 record, are entering an offseason that could catalyze their departure from mediocrity. Notably, this offseason marks Buster Posey’s inaugural year as president of baseball operations, alongside the new general manager, Zack Minasian. With several free agent decisions to make regarding players like Michael Conforto and Blake Snell, there is optimism for a transformative offseason. The Giants could greatly benefit from reconnecting with star players previously pursued. However, doubts surrounding their ability to attract top-tier talent remain due to their suboptimal farm system.
Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers, who finished with a record of 78-84, face an important offseason projected at $183 million. The team’s championship run in 2023 underscored that effective team-building can occur through free agency. Yet, with key players entering free agency, the Rangers must navigate their need for additional pitching and other roster improvements. While general manager Chris Young assured fans that pitching remains a priority, financial constraints tied to avoiding the luxury tax limit complicate ambitions. As the Rangers contemplate a second splash on the market akin to previous seasons, the potential for blockbuster trades makes their situation one to watch.
Finally, the Washington Nationals closed out the 2024 season with a 71-91 record and a projected payroll of $91 million. After a prolonged decline, an upswing in 2024 ignited optimism around the Nationals, particularly among the emergence of young talents. General manager Mike Rizzo acknowledged the need to improve across various avenues, including free agency and trade negotiations. Speculations around re-signing Juan Soto or bolstering the infield reflect a determination to return to competitive stature. While the presence of elite young prospects complicates decisions, there remains skepticism regarding the possibility of pursuing major trades.
